Trade Imbalance

Why in News: In Aug 2025, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on Indian imports, exposing India’s export imbalance — NE States with 5,400 km borders contribute just 0.13% of exports.

Context

  • In Aug 2025, US imposed 25% tariffs on Indian imports citing trade deficits and Russian crude.
  • India’s export architecture is spatially lopsided: four States (Gujarat, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka) contribute >70% of exports; Gujarat alone >33%.
  • Conversely, the eight northeastern States with 5,400 km of international borders contribute just 0.13% of national exports.

Structural Issues

1. Policy Neglect – NE absent in DGFT’s 2024 export plan; no representation in PM’s Economic Advisory Council or Board of Trade.

2. Infrastructure Deficit – No functional trade corridors, weak logistics, skeletal customs offices, lack of warehouses/cold chains.

3. Security-Centric Approach – Borders treated as counterinsurgency zones; Free Movement Regime with Myanmar scrapped in 2024.

4. Tea Economy Distress – Assam produces >50% of India’s tea but remains CTC-grade, poorly branded; tariffs and falling demand threaten jobs.

5. Energy Risks – Numaligarh refinery increasingly dependent on Russian crude; sanctions could directly hit Assam’s economy.

Geopolitical Implications

  • Myanmar Border Silence – Zokhawthar, Moreh reduced to securitised bottlenecks.
  • China’s Expanding Footprint – Infrastructure and militia networks in northern Myanmar risk sidelining India’s Act East policy.
  • Strategic Hollowing – The India-Myanmar-Thailand Highway remains incomplete, leaving NE disconnected from ASEAN corridors.

Way Forward

  • Build resilient trade corridors through Siliguri and Myanmar gateways.
  • Extend RoDTEP, PLI, and branding support to NE products (tea, horticulture, handicrafts).
  • Prioritise roads, warehouses, cold chains over rhetoric.
  • Institutional inclusion of NE in national export policymaking.

Conclusion

India cannot claim Indo-Pacific heft while its eastern flank remains economically brittle. Trade resilience demands spatial dispersion, not concentration.

GS Paper 3 (Economy): External sector, trade policy, inclusive growth, infrastructure deficits, production-linked incentives.

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