India-Afghanistan Relations

Context: Afghanistan’s Acting Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi visited New Delhi. India must pursue step-by-step engagement for Afghanistan’s stability, projecting humanitarian credentials and ensuring security interests.

Joint Statement & Security

  • Joint statement angered Islamabad; Taliban condemned Pahalgam attack (April 2025) and promised not to allow territory against India.
  • UN Report: Commended Taliban actions against Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) but questioned capability

Counter-Narcotics Cooperation

  • Taliban’s drug eradication mostly successful but cultivation uptick and meth labs reported.
  • India faces huge drug seizures along borders.
  • Proposed: NCB training, crop substitution, farmer security, export facilitation.

Water Security: Shahtoot Dam

  • Kabul may run dry by 2030 due to war damage.
  • India reiterated Shahtoot dam offer on Kabul river but this will alarm Pakistan (16% flow drop)
  • Kabul river part of Indus system – should be in new multilateral treaty.

Education & Skills

  • Women’s education paramount but few Taliban leaders support it.
  • Current Initiatives
    • India announced 1,000 e-scholarships through Indian Council of Cultural Relations but it is insufficient.
  • Online education option needs extension to all major colleges with special dispensation in foreign exchange regulations.
  • Focus on areas where India plans investments (e.g., mining mentioned in joint statement).
  • Develop skills in Afghanistan to minimize Indian presence and create local employment.

Way Forward

  • Whole-of-Government Approach
    • National Security Council Secretariat needs strengthening.
    • All government arms (finance, water, power) must work toward specific objective: keeping Afghanistan friendly and stable.
    • Objective must remain constant across governments for India’s permanent relevance.
  • Pakistan Factor
    • Pakistan army has no stake in stability and wants to dominate Taliban.
    • Ordinary Pakistanis (Pashtuns) have cross-border ties; 
    • Potential revenues from Afghanistan trade and transit estimated at $10 billion.
    • International community must work on systemic change and democracy in Pakistan.

Conclusion

  • India’s engagement with Afghanistan should focus on humanitarian assistance, counter-narcotics cooperation, water security, education, and skills development. This is not a zero-sum game with Pakistan and can deliver stability to Pakistan if accepted.

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