Syllabus: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests
Context: PM Modi expected to attend ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, including East Asia Summit (EAS) with U.S. President Trump and Chinese Premier Li Qiang. India’s balancing act between Quad and BRICS comes to fore.
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- India’s Dual Role
- Quad Summit originally scheduled for India in 2025, likely postponed to 2026 due to India-U.S. tensions.
- India to chair BRICS and host summit of 11-nation grouping in 2026.
- India is only common factor between two groupings often antithetical — Quad (U.S. and allies) vs BRICS (Russia, China).
- ASEAN-India Focus
- Modi’s visit primarily for ASEAN-related meetings with Southeast Asian leaders.
- Includes review of ASEAN-India Trade in Goods Agreement (AITIGA).
About Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
- Inter-governmental grouping promoting political-economic cooperation and regional stability in Asia.
- Established 1967 in Bangkok via ASEAN Declaration (Bangkok Declaration) by 5 founding members (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand).
- Currently 10 members; Headquarters: Jakarta, Indonesia.
- Institutional Mechanism
- ASEAN Summit: Annual meetings on regional issues; rotating presidency.
- ASEAN Coordinating Council (ACC): Oversees implementation of agreements.
- ASEAN Secretariat: Supports activities and initiatives.
- ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF): Dialogue platform on political-security issues among members and partners (India joined 1996).
- Decision-making: Through consultation and consensus.
- ASEAN Future Forum
- Proposed by Vietnam at 43rd Summit (2023).
- Platform for member states and partners to share ideas and policy recommendations.
- India is founding member.
- Importance of ASEAN for India
- Economic Partnership
- 4th largest trading partner; 11% of India’s global trade.
- Bilateral trade: $122.67 billion (2023-24).
- Strategic Importance
- ASEAN Centrality crucial to India’s ‘Act East’ policy and ‘Indo-Pacific’ strategy.
- Role in eastern neighbourhood stability (e.g., Myanmar).
- Balances China’s influence in region.
- Connectivity and Development
- Boosts northeast India’s economic development via connectivity projects (Kaladan Multi-Modal Transport Project).
- Secures critical maritime routes (Malacca Strait) for India’s maritime security and trade.
- Soft Power
- Tourism and education exchanges strengthen goodwill between regions.
- Economic Partnership
- Challenges in India-ASEAN Relations
- Economic
- India’s Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) exit created disappointment.
- Trade deficit increased from $9.66 billion (2016-17) to $43.57 billion (2022-23).
- Strategic
- Bilateral engagement preferred over multilateral approach.
- Chinese influence via BRI limits ASEAN’s ability to harness India’s potential.
- Economic
- Connectivity
- Delayed infrastructure projects (Kaladan, India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral Highway) impede economic cooperation.
- Way Forward
- 10-Point Plan strengthens collaboration (India’s 2018 Shangri La Dialogue vision).
- Enhanced connectivity and resilience
- People-centric initiatives
- Educational cooperation
- Disaster resilience and health
- Digital and cyber resilience
- Update ASEAN-India FTA to address trade imbalances.
- Robust maritime cooperation for securing sea lines of communication in Indo-Pacific.
- ‘Indo-Pacific Maritime Partnership’ with ASEAN nations to counterbalance China.
- Complete connectivity projects (India-Myanmar-Thailand Highway); explore extension to other ASEAN countries.
- 10-Point Plan strengthens collaboration (India’s 2018 Shangri La Dialogue vision).
Q- How does India’s trade deficit with ASEAN impact bilateral relations? Suggest measures to achieve balanced trade. (10 Marks)
