Syllabus: Population and associated issues
Context
- UNFPA’s State of World Population 2025 Report shows India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen to 1.9, i.e., below replacement level (2.1).
Perceived Meaning of TFR
- Commonly viewed as the average number of children a woman bears by the end of her reproductive age.
- In reality, it’s a statistical construct, estimating births a woman would have if she experienced current age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) throughout life (ages 15–49 years).
Limitations of TFR Calculation
- Synthetic Cohort Assumption Problem
- Future fertility preferences evolve with education, lifestyle, and economy, unlike older cohorts.
- Thus, synthetic assumption often fails in societies under rapid change (like India).
- Tempo Effect
- Definition: When women delay childbirth, TFR temporarily falls even if total births per woman remain unchanged.
- Impact: Postponed births not reflected in current ASFRs → TFR artificially low.
- Result: Misleading picture — fertility appears to fall faster than it actually does.
- When most young women delay childbirth, future TFRs appear higher, creating statistical fluctuation.
Relevance in India
- India in transition:
- Higher female literacy, urban aspirations, career goals → delay in childbirth, not rejection of motherhood.
- Hence, India’s decline in TFR may reflect timing shifts, not permanent fertility reduction.
Policy Implications
- Historical Evidence
- Sub-replacement fertility has not hindered economic growth (examples: Europe, U.S., East Asia).
- India’s Challenges
- Demographic dividend underutilized due to youth unemployment and low job creation.
- Future automation and AI likely to reduce labour demand, making “population increase” less beneficial.
Conclusion
- India’s reported TFR of 1.9 may not reflect real fertility patterns due to tempo effects, synthetic assumptions, and data exclusions. Policy must not rely solely on TFR numbers to justify pro-natalist measures. There is a need to incorporate longitudinal fertility data, age-specific patterns, and socioeconomic transitions before drawing conclusions.
Q- Discuss the challenges India faces in harnessing its demographic dividend in the context of youth unemployment and automation. (10 Marks)