Syllabus: Issues and challenges pertaining to the federal structure
Context and Constitutional Framework
- Delimitation periodically redraws electoral boundaries to reflect population changes and democratic fairness.
- Inter-State Lok Sabha seat distribution has remained frozen since 1976, based on 1971 Census figures.
- The 84th Constitutional Amendment, 2001 extended the freeze until the first Census after 2026.
- Representation still reflects an India of 548 million, not today’s 1.47 billion population.
Timeline and Institutional Complexity
- Previous Delimitation Commissions took three to five-and-a-half years to complete exercises.
- The 2002–08 Commission only adjusted internal constituencies, without reallocating seats among States.
- The next Commission will reallocate seats, redraw boundaries, and implement 33% women’s reservation.
- Even with Census data by 2028, completion before 2031–32 appears unlikely.
- Women’s reservation may not be operational before the 2034 general elections.
Population Divergence and Representation Debate
- Fertility rates now sharply diverge between northern and southern States.
- Southern and western States achieved below-replacement fertility through social development investments.
- Uttar Pradesh and Bihar continue recording higher population growth rates.
- Population-based allocation may reduce political weight of States with successful population control.
Projected Seat Redistribution Trends
- An expanded Lok Sabha of approximately 888 seats shows major northern gains.
- Uttar Pradesh may rise from 80 to 151 seats, Bihar from 40 to 82 seats.
- Tamil Nadu may rise from 39 to 53 seats, Kerala from 20 to 23 seats.
- Southern States’ proportional share would decline despite absolute seat increases.
Policy Options and Federal Implications
- Extend the freeze until fertility convergence, preserving balance but risking constitutional challenges.
- Expand Lok Sabha size, ensuring no State loses seats but maintaining population dominance.
- Adopt weighted formula, combining population with development and governance indicators.
- Strengthen Rajya Sabha’s federal role through restored domicile rules and equalised State representation.
- Consider bifurcation of Uttar Pradesh to prevent excessive concentration of political power.
- Implement phased redistribution across two election cycles to reduce political shock.
Governance and Democratic Safeguards
- Commission should include demography, constitutional, and federalism experts with State representation.
- Transparency, public hearings, and oversight are essential for trust and legitimacy.
- Delimitation will reshape coalition politics, regional influence, and federal balance for decades.