Syllabus: Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization of resources, growth, development and employment
Survey Approach and Policy Philosophy
- The Survey emphasises evidence-based analysis, avoiding sensationalism amid global economic uncertainty.
- It outlines a medium-term economic and governance framework for future-oriented policymaking.
- Introduces the idea of an “entrepreneurial state” that is risk-taking, adaptive, and experimental.
- Advocates a dynamic policy shift, encouraging learning from failure to accelerate long-term growth.
Global and Domestic Economic Context
- Assigns a 10%–20% probability of a global crisis worse than 2008 in 2026.
- Best-case scenario projects continued global fragility, even under stable conditions.
- Depicts India’s economy as relatively stable, supported by current data and indicators.
- Simultaneously flags emerging domestic vulnerabilities requiring early policy attention.
Rupee Movement and Structural Challenges
- Attributes rupee depreciation to capital flows toward advanced AI economies and safe-haven assets.
- Notes weak rupee benefits exporters but raises import costs for an import-dependent economy.
- Highlights India’s limited strategic role in global merchandise supply chains.
- Calls for building “strategic resilience” and long-term “strategic indispensability”.
Fiscal Strategy and Centre–State Dynamics
- Supports greater fiscal flexibility for the Centre under geopolitical and geoeconomic uncertainty.
- Acknowledges the Centre more than halved its fiscal deficit ratio in five years.
- Warns of rising State revenue deficits and fiscal stress from populist expenditure.
- Critiques unconditional cash transfers, despite their political appeal during election cycles.
Emerging Risks Highlighted
- Flags ethanol production’s potential impact on food security.
- Notes real economic costs of the renewable energy transition.
- Highlights fodder shortages affecting agricultural sustainability.
- Raises concerns over “compulsive scrolling” and smartphone-related behavioural impacts.
Policy Significance
- Positions the Survey as a forward-looking policy compass for growth and governance.
- Encourages balanced attention to stability, resilience, and structural reform priorities.