Expiry of New START Treaty

Syllabus: Effect of policies and politics of developed countries on India’s interests.

Context and Recent Development

• New START Treaty expired on February 5, ending last U.S.–Russia nuclear arms pact.
• Treaty earlier symbolised post-Cold War strategic stability.
• Expiry marks a shift toward renewed nuclear rivalry.

Origins and Core Provisions

• Treaty emerged during U.S.–Russia diplomatic reset in late 2000s.
• Entered into force on February 5, 2011.
• Capped deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 for each side.
• Mandated compliance within seven years of enforcement.
• Allowed 18 annual on-site inspections for verification.
• Required regular data exchanges and monitoring.
• Established bilateral commission to resolve disputes.

Strategic Frictions and Disputes

• Russia criticised U.S. missile defence systems for destabilising deterrence balance.
• U.S. flagged concerns on conventional prompt strike weapons.
• Russia developed new systems like Sarmat ICBM and Avangard glide vehicle.
• Some systems remained outside treaty definitions, creating tensions.

Extension and Suspension

• Treaty originally scheduled to expire in 2021.
• Extended by five years till February 5, 2026.
• Russia suspended participation in February 2023 amid Ukraine conflict.
• U.S. soon mirrored the suspension.

Post-Expiry Strategic Implications

• No legally binding limits on U.S.–Russia nuclear arsenals now.
• Verification systems and inspection mechanisms have ceased.
• Monitoring now relies on satellite surveillance and unilateral intelligence.
• Nuclear and cyber capabilities increasingly interlinked.
• Loss of predictability seen as major strategic risk.

Impact on Global Non-Proliferation

• Expiry complicates inclusion of China in arms control frameworks.
• U.S., Russia, and China cite asymmetries to resist constraints.

Suggested Future Framework

• Experts propose restoring basic transparency measures first.
• Recommend P5 cooperation on definitions and disclosure practices.
• Support confidence-building tools like hotlines and launch notifications.