AI Geopolitics: Lessons from Nuclear Era for India

Context

  • India’s AI Summit highlights tension between global cooperation ideals and national strategic interests.
  • Artificial Intelligence reshapes economies, militaries, and governance systems simultaneously.
  • No nation can treat AI purely as a borderless public good.
  • Strategic competition increasingly shapes technology access, standards, and supply chains.
  • India must balance universalist diplomacy with national technological sovereignty.

Historical Lessons from Nuclear Diplomacy (1955)

  • In 1955, Homi J. Bhabha chaired the UN Geneva Conference on atomic energy.
  • Conference occurred amid intense U.S.- Soviet Cold War technological rivalry.
  • India advocated peaceful uses of atomic energy for developmental transformation.
  • Bhabha emphasised technology access for developing countries’ modernisation.
  • India positioned itself as a bridge-builder between power blocs.

Capacity Building with International Partnerships

  • Bhabha recognised that global influence flows from domestic technological capability.
  • India pursued indigenous nuclear development alongside Western scientific collaboration.
  • Early cooperation emerged with U.S., Canada, Britain, and France.
  • Partnerships accelerated India’s research ecosystems and institutional foundations.
  • Lesson: National capacity and global cooperation must evolve together.

Cautionary Experience: Strategic Drift in Nuclear Era

  • India’s nuclear momentum weakened after leadership losses in the mid-1960s.
  • Geopolitical misreading contributed to technology denial and global isolation.
  • Domestic programme stagnated amid tightening non-proliferation regimes.
  • Meanwhile, China and South Korea built globally competitive nuclear industries.
  • India’s developmental and diplomatic influence consequently narrowed.

Strategic Pathways for India in AI Era

  • India must rapidly expand compute capacity, research ecosystems, and skilled workforce.
  • Regulatory clarity is essential for innovation confidence and investment flows.
  • Deepen technology partnerships with U.S. and advanced economies.
  • Simultaneously retain engagement flexibility across multiple geopolitical blocs.
  • Contribute to global AI governance frameworks grounded in practical experience.
  • Use AI domestically to advance development, indirectly empowering the Global South.

Conclusion

  • AI geopolitics rewards nations that build domestically, collaborate internationally, and shape norms responsibly. India’s task is harmonising national capability with global responsibility, not choosing between them.

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