NPT and the Iran Nuclear Crisis: Cracks in the Non-Proliferation Order
Context and Background
- The US-Israel-Iran war in early 2026 destroyed much of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure temporarily.
- Despite the 2026 ceasefire and Islamabad MoU, Iran retains the technical knowledge to rebuild.
- Iran’s nuclear programme began under US support during the Shah’s era in the 1970s.
- After the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran pursued uranium enrichment as an independent capability.
- Iran enriched uranium to 60% purity — dangerously close to the weapons-grade threshold of 90%.
Critical takeaway: The crisis exposed a fundamental flaw — the NPT cannot prevent a determined near-nuclear state from advancing to the threshold.
The Non-Proliferation Regime: Structural Inequalities
The Two-Tier Order
The treaty institutionalises a two-tier nuclear order, dividing states into nuclear haves and have-nots. P5 nations (US, Russia, China, UK, France) retain nuclear weapons while others must permanently forgo them.
Unfulfilled Commitments
Article VI requires nuclear states to pursue disarmament in good faith — a commitment never fulfilled. India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea remain outside the NPT framework entirely.
CTBT Deadlock
The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty has not entered into force, as the US and China have not ratified it.
FMCT Blockage
Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty negotiations remain blocked by Pakistan in the Conference on Disarmament.
JCPOA: Unravelling and Its Lessons
Key lesson: Multilateral nuclear agreements collapse when powerful states act outside framework commitments unilaterally. Sanctions-based coercion without engagement accelerates rather than prevents proliferation.
Challenges to the Global Non-Proliferation Order
- North Korea: Declared itself a nuclear state and conducted multiple tests despite UNSC sanctions.
- P5 Modernisation: All five nuclear weapon states are actively upgrading and expanding their arsenals.
- New Domains: Hypersonic missiles, AI-enabled targeting and cyber-nuclear interfaces challenge existing deterrence doctrines.
- Weakening Arms Control: Collapse of the INF Treaty, Open Skies Treaty and New START expiry erode the arms control framework.
- Technology Diffusion: Growing access to dual-use nuclear technology makes supplier control increasingly difficult.
- IAEA Limitations: The IAEA lacks enforcement powers against determined violators.
India’s Position on NPT and Nuclear Doctrine
- India refused to sign the NPT, calling it discriminatory and inconsistent with global equality.
- India advocates for universal, non-discriminatory and verifiable global nuclear disarmament.
- India’s nuclear doctrine rests on No First Use (NFU), credible minimum deterrence and civilian control.
- The Indo-US Civil Nuclear Deal (2008) gave India access to civilian nuclear technology without signing the NPT.
- India is a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) waiver system and adheres to export controls.
- India supports the CTBT’s objectives though it has not ratified the treaty.
- India has consistently advocated for a time-bound multilateral disarmament convention replacing the NPT’s two-tier structure.
Way Forward: Towards a Just and Coherent Nuclear Order
Universal Disarmament
P5 nations must fulfil Article VI obligations through concrete, time-bound disarmament steps.
CTBT Entry into Force
US, China, India and Pakistan must ratify CTBT to strengthen the test ban norm.
JCPOA Lesson
Future nuclear agreements must include binding multilateral commitments preventing unilateral withdrawal.
IAEA Strengthening
Enhance the IAEA’s safeguards, verification powers and financial resources to monitor compliance effectively.
Non-Discriminatory Order
Transition toward a nuclear order where disarmament obligations apply equally to all states.
Cyber-Nuclear Norms
Develop international norms preventing cyberattacks on nuclear command and control systems urgently.
Source: The Hindu
