Latest News (2025)
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IMD Forecast: Predicts “above normal” monsoon rainfall at 105% of the long-period average (LPA) for June–September 2025.
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Significance: Critical for agriculture (55% of India’s arable land is rain-fed), water reservoirs, and economic growth.
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Improvement: Monsoon forecast accuracy has improved by 21% since 2007, with reduced errors in predictions.
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Historical Evolution of Monsoon Forecasting
Ancient & Colonial Foundations
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Ancient India:
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Vedic Texts: Upanishads and Brihatsamhita described cloud types, wind patterns, and rainfall cycles.
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Meghdoot (Kālidāsa): Poetic treatise linking monsoon winds to seasonal changes.
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Colonial Era:
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Edmund Halley (1686): Linked monsoon to solar heating and trade winds.
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Henry Blanford (1886): First long-range forecast using Himalayan snow cover.
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Gilbert Walker (1904): Introduced statistical models and identified the Southern Oscillation (SO).
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Post-Independence Advances
| Year | Milestone |
|---|---|
| 1988 | Shifted to Gowariker Model (16 parameters) after Walker’s model faltered. |
| 2003 | Introduced 8- and 10-parameter models; mixed results. |
| 2007 | Adopted Statistical Ensemble Forecasting (reduced error by 21%). |
| 2012 | Launched Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS). |
| 2021 | Implemented Multi-Model Ensemble combining global climate models. |
Key Innovations in Modern Forecasting
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Statistical Ensemble System (2007):
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Uses probabilistic models to account for uncertainties, improving robustness.
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Monsoon Mission (2012):
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Integrates ocean-atmosphere-land data via high-resolution models (e.g., CFSv2).
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Multi-Model Ensemble (2021):
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Combines forecasts from MMCFS, ECMWF, and UKMO for higher accuracy.
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Importance of Monsoon
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Economic Impact:
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Agriculture: 50% of workforce depends on monsoon-driven farming.
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GDP Contribution: 14-15% of GDP linked to monsoon performance.
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Water Security:
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Replenishes 90% of India’s freshwater reservoirs.
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Challenges & Future Focus
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Climate Change: Erratic rainfall patterns and extreme weather events.
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Regional Variability: Difficulty in predicting sub-regional disparities (e.g., Northwest vs. Peninsular India).
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Technology: Scaling AI/ML integration for real-time data analysis.
Did You Know?
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Term “Cyclone”: Coined by Captain Henry Piddington in 1848.
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First Observatory: Established in Calcutta (1785) by the British East India Company.
Conclusion
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IMD’s 2025 forecast reflects decades of advancements, blending ancient wisdom with cutting-edge science.
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Accurate predictions are vital for farmers, policymakers, and disaster management.
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Future success hinges on addressing climate challenges and enhancing AI-driven models.