WHY IN NEWS: Growing public discourse Published on World Population Day (July 11, 2025) around India’s declining fertility rates.
PRESENT DEMOGRAPHIC STATUS IN INDIA
1. Declining Fertility Rates
- The Total Fertility Rate has dropped to 1.9, as reported by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA).
- According to the 2021 Sample Registration System (SRS), the country’s TFR is currently 2.0 children per woman. This marks a decrease from 2.3 in 2014.
2. Increasing ageing population
- According to the United Nations Population Fund’s India Ageing Report 2023, the percentage of the elderly population in India is estimated to grow from 10.5% in 2022 to 20.8% by 2050.
3. UNFPA data
- India’s population will peak around 1.7 billion before stabilizing, with policy focus shifting to quality of life and ageing support .
POSITIVE IMPACTS OF POPULATION DECLINE
- Improved Living Standards & Resource Allocation: With fewer dependents, families can invest more in quality education, healthcare, and housing. This aligns with reports suggesting that controlled fertility decline aids better resource distribution at the household level .
2. Per Capita Economic Growth: Studies from Japan, Germany, and Eastern Europe reveal that GDP per capita rose even when total population declined—challenging the notion that growth requires population expansion .
3. Demographic Dividend Epoch: Lower fertility catalyzes a larger working-age population compared to dependents, yielding a window of accelerated economic growth, especially when leveraged via education and employment opportunities .
4. Accelerated Women’s Empowerment: Smaller family norms enable better female participation in education and the workforce—a long-term boost to gender equality and economic productivity .
5. Environmental Sustainability: A stabilized or slowly declining population reduces pressure on natural resources like water, land, and energy, contributing to sustainable development goals .
6. Silver Economy Growth: The shift toward an ageing population opens opportunities in sectors like healthcare, eldercare, and technology—often referred to as the “silver economy” .
8. Greater Capital Intensity & Productivity Gains: As population slows, capital per worker rises, enhancing productivity, wages, and technological adoption—seen in countries like Japan .
CONS OF POPULATION DECLINE IN INDIA
1. Economic Slowdown & Reduced GDP Growth:
- A shrinking workforce may lead to a slowdown or even contraction in GDP if productivity gains don’t offset the population decrease .
- India risks entering a period of stagnant or negative economic growth, similar to Japan or China .
2. Rising Old-Age Dependency Ratio:
- Southern states already cross the 15% threshold, with Kerala at 26.1%, Tamil Nadu at 20.5% — indicating a significant number of elderly per working-age adult . This leads to increased healthcare burden, pensions, and social assistance needs .
3. Strain on Social Security & Healthcare Systems:
- India’s current systems are underprepared for a larger elderly demographic, facing higher non-communicable disease costs .
4. Labor Shortages & Innovation Decline:
- A reduced working-age population may trigger labor shortages, especially in sectors relying on mass workforce. It may also stunt innovation, as younger demographics often drive entrepreneurship.
5. Economic Sectoral Contraction:
- Industries like education, real estate, consumer goods, and entertainment may shrink due to reduced demand .
- Infrastructure investment may decline, shifting focus to maintenance over expansion .
6. Political & Fiscal Repercussions:
- During delimitation, declining states may lose parliamentary representation and central funding, favouring states with slower fertility decline .
- Resource redistribution may exacerbate regional tensions .
7. Mental Health & Societal Morale:
- Prolonged demographic decline may cause deflationary pressures, infrastructure cuts, and a sense of societal lethargy .
Case study:
- Japan faces a housing crisis with over nine million vacant homes, or akiya, due to low birth rates and an ageing population, spreading even to urban centers like Tokyo. This demographic shift threatens economic vibrancy, increases urban decay, and demands urgent global attention.
DRIVERS OF POPULATION DECLINE
1.Falling Fertility Rate (TFR):
- Below replacement: India’s Total Fertility Rate is falling below the replacement level of 2.1 .
- Contributing factors: Higher female literacy, career prioritization, delayed marriage, widespread contraception use, improved income, and urban lifestyle changes .
2. Delayed Marriage & Childbearing:
- Later life decisions: Couples are marrying later and often choosing to have fewer children, focusing on careers first .
- Urban trends: This is especially prominent in cities, where TFR is even lower—~1.6 compared to national average .
3. Socio‑Economic and Cultural Changes
- Economic pressures: Rising costs of living, education, and healthcare make raising multiple children financially burdensome .
- Women’s empowerment: Improved education and workforce participation for women correspond with smaller family norms .
- Shift in aspirations: Families prefer investing more per child, focusing on quality of upbringing and future prospects .
4. Effective Family‑Planning Policies
- Long‑standing programs: India’s family planning initiatives date back decades; modern contraceptive prevalence rose from ~48% to ~56.5% between 2015 and 2020
5. Regional Migration Patterns
- Negative urban migration in some states: States like Kerala and Tamil Nadu see people moving out more than in, worsening demographic decline .
- Urban-rural disparities: Rural India still has higher TFR, but the gap is closing .
7. Emerging Challenges:
- Point of no return?: Some experts argue that once TFR dips below ~1.6, it becomes very difficult to reverse—even with policy support .
WAY FORWARD
1. Recognize the Transition:
- From ‘Population Control’ to ‘Population Stabilization’: Shift in policy narrative: Move away from slogans like “Hum do, hamare do” to a focus on sustainable population management.
2. Promote Pro-Family & Pro-Natalist Policies (Where Needed)
- Incentives for childbirth: Provide tax benefits, housing subsidies, childcare support, and parental leave to couples, especially in low-fertility urban areas.
- Examples: Like Japan and South Korea, India can consider child allowance programs or subsidised fertility treatments (e.g., IVF).
3. Strengthen Health Systems for an Ageing Population
- Expand geriatric healthcare, train more geriatricians, and build old age homes, especially in high-ageing states (Kerala, Himachal Pradesh).
- Promote telemedicine and home-based care to support elderly in rural areas.
4. Invest in Human Capital
- Education reforms: Improve quality of schooling and vocational training to make India’s shrinking youth cohort more productive and globally competitive.
- Skilling India: Bridge the skill mismatch and improve employability, especially in rural and backward areas.
5. Empower Women Holistically:
- Provide work-life balance infrastructure—creches, flexible jobs, and safe workspaces for working mothers.
6. Tackle Regional Disparities
- While southern states have achieved below-replacement fertility, BIMARU states may still need fertility reduction efforts.
7. Use Migration Strategically
- Treat internal migration as a demographic equalizer.
- Create policies to: Provide portable social security and Encourage reverse migration via rural employment and digital economy hubs.
8. Improve Data and Monitoring
- Regularly update the National Population Register (NPR) and conduct scientific surveys on TFR, ageing, and migration.
9. Learn from Global Experiences
- Countries like Germany, France, Singapore, and China offer lessons:
- Avoid coercive limits (China’s one-child legacy).
- Encourage early interventions before hitting ultra-low fertility (Singapore’s challenge).
- Use comprehensive packages to support families (France’s success).