The Reality of the Changing Dimensions of Warfare

Why in News: Recent conflicts, including the May 2025 India-Pakistan clash, highlight a shift towards AI-driven, drone-based, and cyber warfare, prompting urgent calls to revamp India’s defence modernisation plans.

Erosion of Traditional Political and Military Norms

• Machiavellian Perspective: Politics has always been about power and survival.
• Old frameworks like the Peace of Westphalia (1648) and Congress of Vienna (1814-15), once central to international order, are now largely irrelevant in today’s geopolitical reality.
• Power dynamics are shifting from diplomacy to technological and weapon-based dominance.

Illusion of Peace after World War II

• Post-1945 Peace: The world entered a phase of relative peace after WWII, attributed to the U.S.’s nuclear dominance.
• Rules-Based Order: Concepts like a “rules-based international order” emerged but remained idealistic.
• Persistent Conflicts: Korea, Vietnam, North Africa, and parts of Europe experienced frequent low-scale wars, proving that peace was only superficial

Shift in Warfare Post-Cold War

Operation Desert Storm (1991):

• Marked the first modern war using integrated, tactical, and strategic precision.
• Showcased three-dimensional strikes, real-time intelligence, and technologically driven operations.

Technological Warfare in Ukraine, West Asia, and India

Russia-Ukraine War (Since 2022):

• Changed global war doctrines with the use of drones, AI, and precision strikes.

West Asia Conflicts:

• Introduced non-traditional doctrines, emphasising remote, digital warfare over traditional ground battles.

India-Pakistan Conflict (May 2025): New Features

• Fixed-wing and multi-type drones.
• Loitering munitions, advanced air-to-air missiles.
• GPS- and laser-guided bombs, and use of BrahMos missile.

Pakistan’s Arsenal:

• Used Chinese PL-15 missiles and Turkish Songar drones.
• Air Dominance: Fighter jets and missile precision played crucial roles in establishing control.

How is Warfare Evolving in the 21st Century?

1. Multi-Dimensional Conflicts

• Warfare now spans land, sea, air, cyberspace, the electromagnetic spectrum, and outer space.
• Introduction of unmanned platforms and autonomous weapons is transforming traditional battlefield dynamics.
• Example: China’s Strategic Support Force (now reorganised into the PLA Cyberspace Force and Aerospace Force) integrates cyber operations, space satellite control, and electronic warfare capabilities  .

2. Rise of Non-Contact Warfare

• Use of precision-guided munitions, cyberattacks, and electronic warfare (EW) has reduced the need for direct combat.
• Drones, long-range missiles, and AI systems enable remote strikes and minimal troop exposure.
• Example: Israel’s Iron Dome intercepts projectiles mid-air with minimal human involvement.

3. Technological Advancements

Nations like the US, China, and Russia are leading in:

• Quantum computing
• Artificial Intelligence (AI)
• Hypersonic weapons

These technologies are shaping future combat, with possibilities of machine-vs-machine warfare.

• Sixth-generation fighter jets and autonomous weapon systems are set to dominate future battles.
• Example: AI-powered surveillance drones (e.g., Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2) are used in multiple conflict zones.

4. Perpetual and Hybrid Wars

• Modern wars are often prolonged and irrational, unlike earlier finite wars.

Conflicts now involve:

• Hybrid strategies (conventional + cyber + information warfare)
• Technological asymmetry, where unequal access to tech alters power balance.
• Example: India-Pakistan tensions include cross-border skirmishes, cyber intrusions, and disinformation operations.

Why the Indian Defence Needs a Holistic Transformation

1. Evolving Security Threats

• Two-front challenge: Persistent tensions with China and Pakistan — including confrontations in Eastern Ladakh and Doklam, alongside Pakistan’s proxy warfare in Kashmir.
• Strategic alliance risk: Deepening China–Pakistan collaboration (e.g. CPEC) increases potential for coordinated multi-front conflict.
• Maritime concerns: China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean Region necessitates enhanced maritime and out-of-area contingency (OOAC) capabilities. 

2. Structural & Doctrinal Constraints

• Institutional imbalance: The Indian Army dominates defence planning, and maintaining an over 1.4 million-strong force places a heavy fiscal burden, limiting funds for modernisation. 
• Reactive doctrine: Past crises like the Kargil conflict and 26/11 Mumbai attacks revealed a lack of proactive deterrence; India needs updated operational doctrines aligned to modern threats. 

3. Modernisation Challenges

• Aging inventory: Legacy platforms such as T‑72 tanks and Bofors howitzers remain in service, undermining combat readiness. 
• Still a major importer: Despite the ‘Make in India’ push, India remained the world’s largest arms importer (9.8% of global imports during 2019–23). 
• Delayed induction: Indigenous systems like Tejas fighter jets and Future Infantry Combat Vehicles face persistent delays. Integration between Army, Navy, and Air Force remains limited.

4. Budgetary & Financial Constraints

• Budget gap: India’s defence budget for FY 2025–26 stands at about ₹6.81 lakh crore (~USD 75–81 billion), accounting for 1.9% of GDP, substantially lower than the recommended 2.5–3%. 

Comparison with neighbours:

• China: Officially spends over USD 245–249 billion, more than 3× India’s allocation. With hidden expenditures, analysts estimate actual spending even higher. 

Skewed expenditure breakdown:

• Only ~26% goes towards capital modernisation, severely limiting equipment upgrades. 

India’s Progress in Defence Modernisation

1. Indigenous Defence Platforms

India has developed several critical defence platforms showcasing its growing technological capability:

• Dhanush Artillery Gun System and Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System (ATAGS) for enhanced artillery firepower.
• Main Battle Tank (MBT) Arjun for armoured warfare.
• Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas, a fully indigenous fighter jet.
• Ongoing efforts toward developing a Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft.
• INS Vikrant (commissioned in 2022), India’s first indigenously-built aircraft carrier, marks a major milestone in naval self-reliance.

2. Defence Manufacturing and Procurement Reform

• Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP) 2020 streamlined procurement and prioritised domestic manufacturing.

3. Surge in Defence Exports

• Export surged to ₹21,083 crore (~US $2.63 bn) in FY 2023–24—32.5% growth from ₹15,920 crore in FY22–23  
• India now exports to over 90 countries, aiming for ₹50,000 crore in exports by 2029

4. Private Sector and Startup Ecosystem

• The Innovation for Defence Excellence (iDEX) scheme promotes startups and MSMEs to innovate in defence tech.
• SRIJAN portal supports indigenisation by enabling industries to design and develop equipment that was earlier imported.
• Defence Industrial Corridors in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu support regional defence ecosystems by attracting investments and creating jobs.

5. Encouraging R&D and Foreign Participation

• FDI limits in defence have been raised to 74% via the automatic route and 100% via government route, but further efforts are needed to attract large-scale foreign investments.

What Steps Can India Take to Align with Emerging Warfare Trends?

1. Boost Indigenous Defence Innovation

• Increased R&D Funding: Scale up investment in DRDO technology clusters, defence startups, and academic research.
• Public-Private Collaboration: Support innovation through platforms like iDEX and SRIJAN to develop indigenous, high-tech solutions.

2. Integrate Advanced Technologies

• Autonomous Systems: Deploy AI-powered drones and autonomous vehicles for surveillance and combat.
• Cyber Warfare Tools: Invest in AI-based decision-making systems and digital warfare capabilities.
• Quantum Security: Develop quantum communication and cryptography to secure military networks.

3. Establish Unified and Specialized Commands

• Unified Command Structure: Improve strategic coordination across services for integrated warfare.
• Cyber & Electromagnetic Commands: Set up dedicated forces to address emerging threats in the digital and electromagnetic spectrum.
• NavIC Expansion: Enhance indigenous satellite navigation and surveillance capabilities.

4. Modernize Military Training and Strategy

• Updated Training Modules: Include AI, robotics, and asymmetric warfare tactics in military education.
• Joint Exercises: Engage with technologically advanced forces such as the US, Israel, and France to learn modern combat practices.

5. Align with Global Doctrines and Standards

• Doctrine Upgradation: Adapt and align with NATO and QUAD doctrines to tackle global threats.
• Defence Self-Reliance: Strengthen Make in India initiatives to meet Western military standards.

6. Adopt a Future-Ready Multi-Domain Strategy

• Comprehensive Capability Development: Build balanced readiness across land, sea, air, cyber, and space.
• Space Strategy: Utilize the upcoming Bharatiya Antariksha Station (BAS) for enhanced space-based operations and communication.
• Prepare for Next-Gen Warfare: Anticipate and counter threats like drone swarms, robot warfare, and autonomous mechanized combat.

UPSC Relevance 

GS Paper II (Governance & IR):

• Defence diplomacy (e.g., QUAD, NATO+), military cooperation

GS Paper III (Security & Technology):

• Role of AI, drones, cyber, and space in national security
• Indigenous defence production, DRDO, and private sector innovation

Practice Mains Question

Q. In the context of emerging multi-domain warfare trends, discuss the reforms India must undertake in its defence strategy, technological infrastructure, and military doctrine to maintain strategic superiority. (250 words)