Why in News: Amid shifting U.S. foreign policy under Donald Trump, debates have emerged on how India should engage with China — whether to attempt a reset in relations or to manage rivalry without escalating conflict.
Introduction
- The disruptive foreign policy of U.S. President Donald Trump has complicated the geopolitical environment for India, especially regarding its relations with China.
- Strategic experts debate whether India should pursue a reset with Beijing or aim at managing rivalry without conflict.
Two perspectives emerge
- Reset with Beijing is unrealistic; India must treat China as a primary strategic challenge.
- Rivalry need not mean conflict; India can benefit by building ties with China while strengthening its own economy.
Reset with Beijing Isn’t a Possibility
(a) U.S.–China–India Dynamics
- Trump administration downplayed India’s strategic value, creating uncertainty in India–U.S. relations.
- Simultaneously, U.S. defined China as a “strategic competitor”, worsening India–China tensions.
- India and China already share a fraught relationship with deep mistrust.
(b) China’s Support to Pakistan
- Most alarming development: growing China–Pakistan military and diplomatic collaboration.
- Operation Sindoor (May 2025) revealed close operational cooperation, including advanced weaponry, command systems, and battlefield support.
- China continues to block India’s interests in the UN (e.g., terrorism designations).
(c) Chinese Assertiveness in South Asia
- (e.g., Three Gorges Dam–like projects, hydropower plants) in Tibet, ignoring downstream Indian concerns.
- Expanding economic and military footprint in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Myanmar, and Indian Ocean.
- Recent emphasis on border militarisation, specialised forces, and logistical build-ups near Indian frontiers.
(d) Limited Scope for Reset
- Reset would require compromises on border disputes, trade imbalances, and regional security, but China shows no inclination.
- China views India’s overtures as weakness, especially amid U.S.–India tensions.
- Engagement produces limited results; Beijing remains inflexible on core issues.
(e) Conclusion of This View
Reset is not possible.
India must:
- Strengthen strategic partnerships with like-minded nations.
- Adopt a realist, cautious approach.
- Prepare for sustained competition with China.
Rivalry Need Not Mean Conflict
(a) China’s Current Posture
- Chinese FM Wang Yi, during his India visit, emphasised “stable, predictable, and constructive ties”.
- China recognises rivalry with India but avoids escalation that could undermine its economic rise.
(b) Lessons from the Cold War
- The U.S. managed intense rivalry with the USSR through dialogue, arms control, and coexistence, while building strength.
- India can adopt a similar strategy: engage diplomatically but prepare militarily.
(c) China’s Strategic Calculations
- Since the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War, China has avoided external conflicts.
- Focused on economic modernisation and military upgradation instead of wars.
- Engaging India economically reduces incentives for confrontation.
(d) Opportunities for India
- Economic Cooperation: Trade and investment with China can boost India’s growth and technology access.
- Diplomatic Forums: BRICS, SCO, and bilateral mechanisms provide avenues for structured dialogue.
- Military Preparedness: Simultaneous modernisation of Indian armed forces ensures deterrence.
- Infrastructure and Technology: India can benefit from China’s supply chains while reducing costs.
(e) Conclusion of This View
- Rivalry is inevitable but need not escalate into war.
- India should aim for competitive coexistence – engage economically, modernise militarily, and pursue dialogue to prevent escalation.
Key Takeaways for India’s Policy
- China is India’s primary strategic challenge, with minimal convergence of interests.
- Reset is unrealistic given structural divergences (Pakistan factor, border disputes, South Asia dominance).
- Conflict is avoidable if India pursues careful diplomacy, backed by strong economic and military capabilities.
- Balanced Strategy Required: Neither appeasement nor open hostility, but pragmatic management of rivalry.
- India must strengthen domestic power (economy, technology, defence) while leveraging partnerships with U.S., Japan, EU.
Conclusion
India’s best option is competitive coexistence – strengthen internal capacities, pursue cautious diplomacy, and prepare militarily.
UPSC Relevance
GS Paper II – International Relations
- India–China Relations: Strategic challenges, mistrust, and regional competition.
Mains Practice Question
Q. “A reset with China is unrealistic, but rivalry need not escalate into conflict.” Critically examine this statement in the context of India–China relations, highlighting key challenges and strategic options for India.