Why in News: Nepal is witnessing its worst political unrest in years, forcing PM K.P. Sharma Oli to resign after a ban on 26 social media platforms triggered youth-led protests. The movement, marked by deaths and injuries, reflects anger over corruption, unemployment, and governance failures. The crisis has strategic implications for India, given the open border and Nepal’s role as a buffer with China.
Causes of the Current Crisis
1. Youth Discontent
- Rising unemployment and stagnant wages; 82% in informal employment (World Bank).
- Daily migration of ~1,000 youth abroad in search of opportunities.
- Youth excluded from mainstream politics dominated by ageing leaders.
- No credible political channel for grievances → street protests as last resort.
- Social media crackdown seen as an attack on youth identity and freedom.
2. Governance Deficit
- Entrenched corruption and nepotism (“Nepo Kids” trending on social media).
- Almost every senior leader (including 5 ex-PMs) facing corruption charges.
- Frequent coalition governments → unstable policymaking.
- Lack of accountability and institutional credibility.
- Constitutional promises (e.g., 2015 constitution) remain unfulfilled.
3. Economic and Social Stress
- Inequality and poverty worsening.
- Climate shocks: floods (Ernakulam-type), landslides, glacial lake outburst floods.
- Crumbling health and education systems.
- Youth anger over mismatch between lavish lifestyles of elites vs. hardships of common people.
- Dependence on remittances: lifeline for economy but unsustainable.
4. Authoritarian Measures
- Ban on 26 apps triggered protests, exposing disconnect between leaders and society.
- Excessive use of curfews and emergency powers.
- Brutal crackdown killed 19 and injured 200+.
- Targeting of civil society and media deepened mistrust.
- Perceived as regime’s attempt to silence dissent, not solve problems.
Broader Regional Context
- Bangladesh (2024): Anti-quota youth protests → ended Sheikh Hasina’s 15-year rule.
- Sri Lanka (2022): Food/fuel shortages, inflation → collapse of Rajapaksa regime.
- Pakistan (frequent): Youth anger at unemployment, inflation sparks political instability.
- Common Thread: Governance failures, corruption, and lack of opportunities for youth.
- South Asian Trend: Regime change increasingly youth-led and digitally mobilised.
- Lesson: Ignoring youth aspirations has destabilised multiple governments in the region.
Implications for India
1. Strategic Concerns
- Nepal is a buffer between India and China → instability could tilt balance toward Beijing.
- India’s influence could wane if youth perceive it as backing old elites.
- Instability could delay/damage India-led projects (hydropower, road, rail).
2. Security Dimensions
- Open border: potential refugee/migrant inflows into Bihar, UP, Uttarakhand.
- Cross-border smuggling, radicalisation, and criminal networks may grow amid chaos.
- Space for anti-India elements (internal + external) to exploit youth anger.
3. Economic & Social Linkages
- Disruption of trade and transit (India is Nepal’s largest trade partner).
- Impact on migrant workers in both directions.
- Reduced trust could hinder projects under India’s Neighbourhood First and BIMSTEC agendas.
4. Diplomatic Repercussions
- Risk of being seen as interfering if India is too visible.
- Conversely, inaction could cede space to China.
- Need for delicate balance: quiet engagement with protesters + formal ties with leadership.
Policy Options for India
1. Calibrated Engagement
- Avoid overt interference but engage both political elites and youth.
- Quiet diplomacy to prevent perception of meddling.
2. Youth Outreach
- Expand scholarships, internships, and cultural exchanges for Nepali students.
- Create India–Nepal Youth Forum for dialogue.
3. Institutional Strengthening
- Support capacity building in electoral reforms, judiciary, and anti-corruption bodies.
- Partner in digital governance and cybersecurity.
4. Economic & Developmental Partnership
- Boost job creation in Nepal via joint ventures, cross-border projects.
- Expand hydropower and connectivity investments with visible benefits for common citizens.
5. Strategic Patience & Preparedness
- Reassure Nepal of India’s dependable partnership.
- Prepare contingency plans for refugee inflows.
- Stay alert to avoid Bangladesh-like regime collapse scenario.
Conclusion
Nepal’s turmoil is a reminder that ignoring youth aspirations is perilous. The Gen Z protests reflect a generational demand for systemic transformation, accountable governance, and inclusive growth.
UPSC Relevance
GS Paper II: India & its Neighbourhood Relations; Regional Stability; India’s foreign policy.
Mains Practice Question
Q. The ongoing political unrest in Nepal, driven largely by youth, highlights the challenges of governance, employment, and regional stability in South Asia. Discuss the implications of this crisis for India and suggest measures India should adopt in line with its ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy. (250 words)