Why in News: E3 triggered the snapback clause after U.S. strikes on Iran’s Fordow site; IAEA access denied, heightening nuclear crisis.
Introduction
- The June 2025 U.S. strikes on Iran’s Fordow nuclear site have revived global nuclear tensions.
- E3’s invocation of the JCPOA “snapback clause” threatens renewed sanctions, risking escalation over diplomacy.
- The central challenge lies in the absence of IAEA verification, making speculation dominate policy choices.
Global Dimensions
1. US & Europe:
- US treats it as a non-proliferation credibility test.
- E3 views it as a test of multilateral commitments.
2. Russia & China: Seek delay and bargaining leverage.
3. Regional Players:
- Israel & Gulf states weigh warning times vs. war risks.
- Oil-importing nations face volatility in energy and shipping insurance.
Why Verification Matters
- IAEA access provides facts, prevents miscalculations.
- Precedent: Zaporizhzhia monitoring reduced panic despite risks.
- Iran’s fear: inspections may aid military targeting (past precedents).
- Possible NPT withdrawal → would erode global arms control architecture.
India’s Stakes
1. Strategic: Stability in extended neighbourhood crucial.
2. Economic: Dependence on uninterrupted oil through Strait of Hormuz.
3. Human Security: Safety of ~8 million Indians in West Asia.
4. Diplomatic:
- As IAEA Board member & SCO/BRICS partner, India can act as a bridge.
- Can frame verification as sovereign choice, not concession.
5. Technical: Tarapur facility can host safeguarded sample analysis.
Way Forward
- Encourage Iran–IAEA engagement (recent Cairo agreement, Sept 2025).
- Promote “verification with safeguards” — protect sensitive details while ensuring transparency.
- Build Global South consensus within SCO/BRICS to de-escalate.
- India should push for diplomacy over sanctions and position itself as a responsible stakeholder.
Conclusion
The crisis underlines the principle that facts, not fears, must drive nuclear diplomacy. For India, supporting IAEA verification safeguards energy, diaspora, and its rising global profile.
UPSC Relevance
GS Paper II: International Relations – Nuclear Non-Proliferation, JCPOA, role of IAEA, India’s West Asia policy.
Mains Practice Question
Q1. “The crisis over Iran’s nuclear programme highlights the importance of verification mechanisms in international security. Discuss India’s stakes and possible role in shaping a diplomatic resolution.” (15 marks, 250 words)