Why in News: Recent conflicts, including the May 2025 India-Pakistan clash, highlight a shift towards AI-driven, drone-based, and cyber warfare, prompting urgent calls to revamp India’s defence modernisation plans.
Erosion of Traditional Political and Military Norms
- Machiavellian Perspective: Politics has always been about power and survival.
- Old frameworks like the Peace of Westphalia (1648) and Congress of Vienna (1814-15), once central to international order, are now largely irrelevant in today’s geopolitical reality.
- Power dynamics are shifting from diplomacy to technological and weapon-based dominance.
Illusion of Peace after World War II
- Post-1945 Peace: The world entered a phase of relative peace after WWII, attributed to the U.S.’s nuclear dominance.
- Rules-Based Order: Concepts like a “rules-based international order” emerged but remained idealistic.
- Persistent Conflicts: Korea, Vietnam, North Africa, and parts of Europe experienced frequent low-scale wars, proving that peace was only superficial
Shift in Warfare Post-Cold War
Operation Desert Storm (1991):
- Marked the first modern war using integrated, tactical, and strategic precision.
- Showcased three-dimensional strikes, real-time intelligence, and technologically driven operations.
Technological Warfare in Ukraine, West Asia, and India
Russia-Ukraine War (Since 2022):
- Changed global war doctrines with the use of drones, AI, and precision strikes.
West Asia Conflicts:
- Introduced non-traditional doctrines, emphasising remote, digital warfare over traditional ground battles.
India-Pakistan Conflict (May 2025): New Features
- Fixed-wing and multi-type drones.
- Loitering munitions, advanced air-to-air missiles.
- GPS- and laser-guided bombs, and use of BrahMos missile.
Pakistan’s Arsenal:
- Used Chinese PL-15 missiles and Turkish Songar drones.
- Air Dominance: Fighter jets and missile precision played crucial roles in establishing control.
How is Warfare Evolving in the 21st Century?
1. Multi-Dimensional Conflicts
- Warfare now spans land, sea, air, cyberspace, the electromagnetic spectrum, and outer space.
- Introduction of unmanned platforms and autonomous weapons is transforming traditional battlefield dynamics.
- Example: China’s Strategic Support Force (now reorganised into the PLA Cyberspace Force and Aerospace Force) integrates cyber operations, space satellite control, and electronic warfare capabilities .
2. Rise of Non-Contact Warfare
- Use of precision-guided munitions, cyberattacks, and electronic warfare (EW) has reduced the need for direct combat.
- Drones, long-range missiles, and AI systems enable remote strikes and minimal troop exposure.
- Example: Israel’s Iron Dome intercepts projectiles mid-air with minimal human involvement.
3. Technological Advancements
Nations like the US, China, and Russia are leading in:
- Quantum computing
- Artificial Intelligence (AI)
- Hypersonic weapons
These technologies are shaping future combat, with possibilities of machine-vs-machine warfare.
- Sixth-generation fighter jets and autonomous weapon systems are set to dominate future battles.
- Example: AI-powered surveillance drones (e.g., Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2) are used in multiple conflict zones.
4. Perpetual and Hybrid Wars
- Modern wars are often prolonged and irrational, unlike earlier finite wars.
Conflicts now involve:
- Hybrid strategies (conventional + cyber + information warfare)
- Technological asymmetry, where unequal access to tech alters power balance.
- Example: India-Pakistan tensions include cross-border skirmishes, cyber intrusions, and disinformation operations.
Why the Indian Defence Needs a Holistic Transformation
1. Evolving Security Threats
- Two-front challenge: Persistent tensions with China and Pakistan — including confrontations in Eastern Ladakh and Doklam, alongside Pakistan’s proxy warfare in Kashmir.
- Strategic alliance risk: Deepening China–Pakistan collaboration (e.g. CPEC) increases potential for coordinated multi-front conflict.
- Maritime concerns: China’s growing presence in the Indian Ocean Region necessitates enhanced maritime and out-of-area contingency (OOAC) capabilities.Â
2. Structural & Doctrinal Constraints
- Institutional imbalance: The Indian Army dominates defence planning, and maintaining an over 1.4 million-strong force places a heavy fiscal burden, limiting funds for modernisation.Â
- Reactive doctrine: Past crises like the Kargil conflict and 26/11 Mumbai attacks revealed a lack of proactive deterrence; India needs updated operational doctrines aligned to modern threats.Â
3. Modernisation Challenges
- Aging inventory: Legacy platforms such as T‑72 tanks and Bofors howitzers remain in service, undermining combat readiness.Â
- Still a major importer: Despite the ‘Make in India’ push, India remained the world’s largest arms importer (9.8% of global imports during 2019–23).Â
- Delayed induction: Indigenous systems like Tejas fighter jets and Future Infantry Combat Vehicles face persistent delays. Integration between Army, Navy, and Air Force remains limited.
4. Budgetary & Financial Constraints
- Budget gap: India’s defence budget for FY 2025–26 stands at about ₹6.81 lakh crore (~USD 75–81 billion), accounting for 1.9% of GDP, substantially lower than the recommended 2.5–3%.Â
Comparison with neighbours:
- China: Officially spends over USD 245–249 billion, more than 3× India’s allocation. With hidden expenditures, analysts estimate actual spending even higher.Â
Skewed expenditure breakdown:
- Only ~26% goes towards capital modernisation, severely limiting equipment upgrades.Â
India’s Progress in Defence Modernisation
1. Indigenous Defence Platforms
India has developed several critical defence platforms showcasing its growing technological capability:
- Dhanush Artillery Gun System and Advanced Towed Artillery Gun System (ATAGS) for enhanced artillery firepower.
- Main Battle Tank (MBT) Arjun for armoured warfare.
- Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas, a fully indigenous fighter jet.
- Ongoing efforts toward developing a Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft.
- INS Vikrant (commissioned in 2022), India’s first indigenously-built aircraft carrier, marks a major milestone in naval self-reliance.
2. Defence Manufacturing and Procurement Reform
- Defence Acquisition Procedure (DAP) 2020 streamlined procurement and prioritised domestic manufacturing.
3. Surge in Defence Exports
- Export surged to ₹21,083 crore (~US $2.63 bn) in FY 2023–24—32.5% growth from ₹15,920 crore in FY22–23 Â
- India now exports to over 90 countries, aiming for ₹50,000 crore in exports by 2029
4. Private Sector and Startup Ecosystem
- The Innovation for Defence Excellence (iDEX) scheme promotes startups and MSMEs to innovate in defence tech.
- SRIJAN portal supports indigenisation by enabling industries to design and develop equipment that was earlier imported.
- Defence Industrial Corridors in Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu support regional defence ecosystems by attracting investments and creating jobs.
5. Encouraging R&D and Foreign Participation
- FDI limits in defence have been raised to 74% via the automatic route and 100% via government route, but further efforts are needed to attract large-scale foreign investments.
What Steps Can India Take to Align with Emerging Warfare Trends?
1. Boost Indigenous Defence Innovation
- Increased R&D Funding: Scale up investment in DRDO technology clusters, defence startups, and academic research.
- Public-Private Collaboration: Support innovation through platforms like iDEX and SRIJAN to develop indigenous, high-tech solutions.
2. Integrate Advanced Technologies
- Autonomous Systems: Deploy AI-powered drones and autonomous vehicles for surveillance and combat.
- Cyber Warfare Tools: Invest in AI-based decision-making systems and digital warfare capabilities.
- Quantum Security: Develop quantum communication and cryptography to secure military networks.
3. Establish Unified and Specialized Commands
- Unified Command Structure: Improve strategic coordination across services for integrated warfare.
- Cyber & Electromagnetic Commands: Set up dedicated forces to address emerging threats in the digital and electromagnetic spectrum.
- NavIC Expansion: Enhance indigenous satellite navigation and surveillance capabilities.
4. Modernize Military Training and Strategy
- Updated Training Modules: Include AI, robotics, and asymmetric warfare tactics in military education.
- Joint Exercises: Engage with technologically advanced forces such as the US, Israel, and France to learn modern combat practices.
5. Align with Global Doctrines and Standards
- Doctrine Upgradation: Adapt and align with NATO and QUAD doctrines to tackle global threats.
- Defence Self-Reliance: Strengthen Make in India initiatives to meet Western military standards.
6. Adopt a Future-Ready Multi-Domain Strategy
- Comprehensive Capability Development: Build balanced readiness across land, sea, air, cyber, and space.
- Space Strategy: Utilize the upcoming Bharatiya Antariksha Station (BAS) for enhanced space-based operations and communication.
- Prepare for Next-Gen Warfare: Anticipate and counter threats like drone swarms, robot warfare, and autonomous mechanized combat.
UPSC Relevance
GS Paper II (Governance & IR):
- Defence diplomacy (e.g., QUAD, NATO+), military cooperation
GS Paper III (Security & Technology):
- Role of AI, drones, cyber, and space in national security
- Indigenous defence production, DRDO, and private sector innovation
Practice Mains Question
Q. In the context of emerging multi-domain warfare trends, discuss the reforms India must undertake in its defence strategy, technological infrastructure, and military doctrine to maintain strategic superiority. (250 words)