What is COP?

• COP (Conference of the Parties): the main decision-making body of the UNFCCC.
• UNFCCC: adopted at the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, came into force in 1994.
• COP meets every year to review global climate action, including commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement.
• Decisions are generally based on consensus, so agreement among countries is essential.

Understanding the Main Climate Debate

• COP28 (2023): called for a “transition away from fossil fuels” in energy systems for the first time.
• COP30 (2025): countries debated a possible fossil-fuel roadmap, while developing countries stressed the need for greater adaptation finance.
• COP31 will therefore have to balance emission reduction, fossil-fuel transition, adaptation and climate finance.

• Increase the share of electricity in final energy demand to 35% by 2035.
• Strengthen protection of oceans and marine resources.
• Promote zero waste and a circular economy.
• Türkiye’s “Climate Implementation Bridge” aims to connect climate plans with the finance needed for implementation.

• Türkiye and Australia had competing claims to host COP31, leading to a shared arrangement.
• Türkiye will host the summit, while Australia will lead the negotiations — creating a need for close coordination and a clear division of responsibilities.
• Both countries have economies that depend significantly on fossil fuels, making the issue of fossil-fuel transition particularly sensitive.
• However, the COP Presidency is expected to act as a neutral facilitator, representing the interests of the wider climate negotiations rather than simply promoting national interests.

Environmental Dimension

• Burning coal, oil and gas is the largest source of greenhouse gas emissions, so any climate deal that avoids fossil fuels remains incomplete.
• Electrification reduces emissions only when the electricity itself comes from clean sources — otherwise it simply shifts the emissions elsewhere.
• Methane reduction through better waste management gives a quick climate benefit, since methane is a potent greenhouse gas.
• The Nepal floods show that extreme weather events are becoming more intense and more frequent in the Himalayan region.

Economic Dimension

• Fossil fuel exports support jobs, government revenue and trade balances, making it politically hard for exporting countries to support a phase-down.
• Electric vehicles have overtaken petrol car sales in Australia for the first time, showing market forces are already moving towards clean transport.
• Industrial decarbonisation, such as using electric or hybrid mining machinery, can reduce costs in the long run.
• Green industries can create new jobs, but only if workers are protected through a just transition.

Climate Finance and Justice Dimension

• Developing countries need more finance and technology support for adaptation, loss and damage, and the transition away from fossil fuels.
• This reflects the CBDR-RC principle — countries have different responsibilities and capacities to tackle climate change.

Social and Humanitarian Dimension

• Floods, cyclones and heatwaves disproportionately affect vulnerable groups, including the poor, women and small farmers.
• Coal-dependent communities need alternative jobs and livelihoods to support a fair transition to clean energy.
• Climate-induced migration and displacement can create social and economic tensions between neighbouring regions.

• India supports climate action but wants a fair transition, based on CBDR, without imposing the same energy pathway on every country.
• Since developed countries have contributed more to historical emissions, India calls for greater climate finance and technology transfer to developing countries.
• India still depends heavily on coal for electricity, while targeting net zero by 2070 and expanding non-fossil energy through its NDCs.
• Through initiatives such as the International Solar Alliance, Mission LiFE and Green Hydrogen, India promotes clean-energy solutions.
• As a Himalayan neighbour of Nepal, India is also vulnerable to floods and glacial risks and has an interest in loss and damage finance and early-warning systems.
• At COP31, India can push for a just and flexible transition, with countries moving at different speeds while receiving appropriate support.

• Important themes such as loss and damage and climate finance are missing from the priority list, even though developing countries consider them central.
• There is a lack of trust between developed and developing countries, because past finance promises have not been fully met.
• Consensus decisions move slowly, which is why some countries are now working outside the UNFCCC.
• Implementation remains weak, because many ambitious plans are not backed by actual funds or technology.
• Rising global energy demand makes it harder to reduce fossil fuel use in the short term.