Syllabus: Effect of policies and politics of developed countries on India’s interests.
Context and Recent Development
- New START Treaty expired on February 5, ending last U.S.–Russia nuclear arms pact.
- Treaty earlier symbolised post-Cold War strategic stability.
- Expiry marks a shift toward renewed nuclear rivalry.
Origins and Core Provisions
- Treaty emerged during U.S.–Russia diplomatic reset in late 2000s.
- Entered into force on February 5, 2011.
- Capped deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 for each side.
- Mandated compliance within seven years of enforcement.
- Allowed 18 annual on-site inspections for verification.
- Required regular data exchanges and monitoring.
- Established bilateral commission to resolve disputes.
Strategic Frictions and Disputes
- Russia criticised U.S. missile defence systems for destabilising deterrence balance.
- U.S. flagged concerns on conventional prompt strike weapons.
- Russia developed new systems like Sarmat ICBM and Avangard glide vehicle.
- Some systems remained outside treaty definitions, creating tensions.
Extension and Suspension
- Treaty originally scheduled to expire in 2021.
- Extended by five years till February 5, 2026.
- Russia suspended participation in February 2023 amid Ukraine conflict.
- U.S. soon mirrored the suspension.
Post-Expiry Strategic Implications
- No legally binding limits on U.S.–Russia nuclear arsenals now.
- Verification systems and inspection mechanisms have ceased.
- Monitoring now relies on satellite surveillance and unilateral intelligence.
- Nuclear and cyber capabilities increasingly interlinked.
- Loss of predictability seen as major strategic risk.
Impact on Global Non-Proliferation
- Expiry complicates inclusion of China in arms control frameworks.
- U.S., Russia, and China cite asymmetries to resist constraints.
Suggested Future Framework
- Experts propose restoring basic transparency measures first.
- Recommend P5 cooperation on definitions and disclosure practices.
- Support confidence-building tools like hotlines and launch notifications.