Syllabus: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.
Background of the Global Nuclear Order
- Nuclear weapons have not been used since Hiroshima and Nagasaki (1945).
- Global arsenals fell from 65,000 (1970s) to 12,500 today.
- Despite fears, only nine countries possess nuclear weapons.
Trump’s Announcement
- Donald Trump has announced U.S. plans to start testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis”.
- The message targeted Russia and China, suggesting they were testing clandestinely.
- Confusion arose since U.S. nuclear labs fall under the Department of Energy, not the Department of War.
Existing Nuclear Developments
- Russia tested the Burevestnik nuclear-powered missile and Poseidon underwater torpedo.
- China tested hypersonic glide vehicles capable of orbiting Earth.
- U.S. developing new warheads like the B61-13 and W76-2.
Status of the CTBT (Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty)
- CTBT (1996) has 187 signatories but has not entered into force.
- Required ratifications missing from U.S., China, Israel, Egypt, Iran, and withdrawn by Russia (2023).
- India, Pakistan, North Korea have not signed.
- CTBT bans “any nuclear weapon test explosion”, but lacks definition; U.S., Russia, China follow zero-yield testing.
- Zero-yield testing refers to nuclear experiments that create no detectable nuclear explosion, specifically avoiding a self-sustaining, supercritical chain reaction, to study weapon components or physics without violating test ban treaties like the CTBT.
Potential Global Fallout
- Resumption of explosive testing may trigger a new nuclear arms race.
- China, with only 47 past tests, stands to gain from new testing data.
- India, observing a voluntary moratorium since 1998, may be compelled to resume testing to validate thermonuclear designs.
- This threatens the global non-proliferation regime and weakens the nuclear taboo.
Need for a New Nuclear Order
- The current order is shaped by 20th-century geopolitics and now under strain.
- UN warns nuclear risks are “alarmingly high”, urging restraint.
- A modern nuclear framework is needed to prevent miscalculation and escalation.
Q- “The erosion of the global nuclear restraint regime reflects a return to Cold War–style rivalries.” Discuss in the context of recent U.S., Russia, and China nuclear testing developments. (15 Marks)