🇮🇳🇷🇺 India’s Strategic Balancing Act: Russia, the West, and Strategic Autonomy

Syllabus: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Context

  • The India–Russia Strategic Partnership completed 25 years, marked by President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Delhi after the 2022 Ukraine invasion.
  • Despite an ICC warrant and deepening Russia-West tensions, India invited Mr. Putin, signalling foreign-policy intent.

Key Diplomatic Signals

  • The Government accorded a state visit, indicating that Russia remains a valued partner despite Western attempts at isolation.
  • PM Narendra Modi reiterated peace, yet avoided public criticism of Russia, reflecting calibrated diplomacy.
  • India sought economic engagement despite pressure from U.S. tariffs, sanctions on oil trade, and restrictions on Russian entities.

Economic Engagement Highlights

  • Key outcomes emphasised labour mobility, an MoU for a joint urea plant in Russia, and continuation of the economic road map launched in 2024.
  • The roadmap focuses on trade expansion, maritime connectivity, and national currency payment systems to bypass sanctions.
  • However, no announcement was made regarding increased oil imports, complicating the $100 billion trade target by 2030.

Calibrated Sensitivity to Western Concerns

  • Both sides avoided agreements in areas sensitive to the West — defence hardware, nuclear energy, and space cooperation.
  • India remains cautious amid ongoing negotiations with the U.S. and EU on trade agreements and high-level visits.

Strategic Autonomy: The Core Message

  • Mr. Modi described Russia as India’s “Dhruv Tara”, but India must ensure that strategic autonomy reflects consistent engagement with both Russia and the West.
  • India’s challenge is to maintain a stable balance, not oscillate between partners hostile to each other.

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