Syllabus: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests
What is the Iranian Conundrum?
- The Iranian conundrum denotes recurring cycles of economic distress, legitimacy crises, and external pressure.
- Short-term control measures suppress unrest, but structural causes repeatedly regenerate instability.
- Core drivers include sanctions, high inflation, currency volatility, governance constraints, and factional power centres.
Recent Triggers and Developments
- Bazaar-led protests (December 2025) erupted over currency instability and rising operational costs.
- Initial economic protests reportedly expanded nationwide into broader anti-government agitation.
- Casualty figures remain contested, reflecting information controls and reporting asymmetries.
- President Masoud Pezeshkian operates with limited executive authority, constraining reform delivery.
Historical Roots of Instability
- Constitutional Awakening (1905–1911) created a Majlis, but democracy remained weak.
- Pahlavi monarchy (1925–1979) pursued rapid modernisation amid repression and inequality.
- 1953 Mossadegh coup entrenched distrust of foreign intervention after oil nationalisation.
- Islamic Revolution (1979) replaced monarchy with a theocratic republic.
- Recurring protests in 2009, 2019, 2022, and 2025–26 reveal persistent state–society tension.
Current Governance Architecture
- Supreme Leader holds ultimate authority over military, judiciary, media, and foreign policy.
- President and Majlis manage governance but remain subordinate to clerical oversight.
- Guardian Council vets candidates and laws for ideological compliance.
- Assembly of Experts appoints the Supreme Leader; Expediency Council resolves institutional disputes.
- IRGC and Bonyads dominate security and economic sectors, forming a powerful deep state.
Implications of Recent Protests
- For India
- Energy security risks emerge from Gulf instability affecting oil prices and inflation.
- Diaspora safety and remittances face heightened uncertainty across West Asia.
- Connectivity plans to Central Asia and Afghanistan via Iran face sanctions-related constraints.
- Domestic sensitivities arise due to resonance among India’s Shia community.
- At the Global Level
- Hormuz-linked escalation can reprice global energy and shipping insurance risks.
- Iran remains a pressure point in broader great-power and sanctions politics.
- External signalling on protests may harden Iranian threat perceptions and intensify crackdowns.
Conclusion
- Iran’s crisis reflects a structural stress test of currency credibility and governance capacity.
- Containment without economic normalisation ensures cyclical recurrence of unrest.
- India must prioritise risk insulation, diaspora protection, and calibrated diplomacy.
