Changing U.S. Strategic Posture
- In 2025, the U.S. undertook its largest Caribbean troop mobilisation in decades.
- Deployment included aircraft carrier, fighter jets, submarines, amphibious vessels, and troops.
- Objective was to intensify pressure on Venezuela and challenge President Nicolás Maduro.
National Security Strategy, 2025
- The U.S. NSS (December 2025) prioritises Latin America and the Caribbean.
- Revives the Monroe Doctrine, denying external influence, especially China, in the Western Hemisphere.
- Emphasises American political, economic, and military primacy in the region.
Retreat from Europe
- Simultaneously, the U.S. shows waning commitment to European security.
- Post-1945, Washington was Europe’s primary security guarantor through NATO.
- Under President Trump, U.S. explicitly rejects burden-sharing for European defence.
End of Unipolarity
- The post-1991 unipolar moment has clearly passed.
- Russia’s Crimea annexation (2014) exposed limits of the Western rules-based order.
- Weak Western response and Russia’s endurance under sanctions highlighted structural shifts.
- Three Great Powers
- The U.S. remains the pre-eminent military and economic power globally.
- China has emerged as the principal systemic challenger to U.S. dominance.
- Russia, despite weaker economy, remains relevant due to nuclear arsenal and resources.
U.S.–China Structural Rivalry
- China’s economy is about 66% of U.S. GDP, narrowing rapidly.
- Beijing has converted economic strength into military capacity, building the world’s largest navy.
- A prolonged reigning power versus rising power contest appears inevitable.
Russia’s Strategic Position
- Russia seeks to reassert influence in post-Soviet space.
- NATO expansion and Ukraine war pushed Moscow closer to China.
- Yet Russia remains cautious about being reduced to a Chinese junior partner.
Fluid Multipolarity
- The world is multipolar, but lacks stable institutional structures.
- Unlike the Cold War, there are no rigid ideological blocs or satellite networks.
- Middle powers like India, Brazil, Japan, and Germany continue strategic hedging.
Bipolar Characteristics within Multipolarity
- Russia has emerged as a “swing great power” between the U.S. and China.
- This dynamic lends the system a bipolar character within a multipolar framework.