Why is News :
- The SIPRI Yearbook 2025 warns of a renewed global nuclear arms race, ending decades of gradual reduction in nuclear stockpiles post-Cold War. Nearly all nine nuclear-armed states are modernizing and expanding their arsenals amid weakening arms control regimes and rising geopolitical instability.
Key Highlights
Total Global Nuclear Warheads (Jan 2025):
- Estimated: 12,241 warheads
- In military stockpiles: ~9,614
- Deployed: ~3,912
- High-alert (ready-to-launch): ~2,100 (mostly US & Russia)
Nuclear-Armed States (9):
- USA, Russia, China, France, UK, India, Pakistan, North Korea, Israel
- All engaged in modernization; some expanding arsenals significantly.
SIPRI (Stockholm International Peace Research Institute :
SIPRI is an independent international institute dedicated to research into conflict, armaments, arms control and disarmament. It is based in stockholm.
- It was established in 1966, SIPRI provides data, analysis and recommendations, based on open sources, to policymakers, researchers, media and the interested public.
- Funding: It was established on the basis of a decision by the Swedish Parliament and receives a substantial part of its funding in the form of an annual grant from the Swedish Government.
- The Institute also seeks financial support from other organizations in order to carry out its research.
Country-Specific Developments
- Russia & USA: Hold ~90% of global nuclear warheads; both face modernization delays but are expected to increase deployments post-2026 (New START expiry).
- China: Fastest-growing arsenal; ~600 warheads; building 350+ ICBM silos; may reach 1,500 warheads by 2035.
- India: Expanding delivery systems; developing canisterized missiles and potential MIRV capability (multiple warheads per missile).
- Pakistan: Continuing fissile material accumulation and delivery platform development.
- North Korea: ~50 warheads; in final stages of tactical nuclear weapons; increasing fissile material stock
- Israel: Unacknowledged arsenal; likely upgrading Jericho missiles and Dimona facility.
- UK & France: No numerical growth yet, but upgrading submarines, missiles, and air-delivered systems.
Arms Control Crisis
- New START (US-Russia): Expires in Feb 2026; no signs of renewal.
- Collapse of Bilateral Mechanisms: Post-INF Treaty, arms control is weakening.
- US demands inclusion of China in future negotiations complicates talks.
- Technological disruptions (AI, cyber, quantum, missile defence) are reshaping deterrence dynamics.
India–Pakistan Tensions: A Warning
- Armed conflict in early 2025 targeted nuclear infrastructure.
- Disinformation and miscalculation created risks of nuclear escalation.
- Reinforces risks of conflict spiraling into nuclear war, even unintentionally.
Emerging Global Trends & Risks
- Shift from disarmament to rearmament: Dismantling slowing, deployments rising.
- AI & Quantum Tech: Could affect early warning, strategic stability, and crisis response times
- Nuclear Sharing & Hosting Debates: NATO states, Belarus, and others re-evaluating roles.
- New Entrants?: National debates in East Asia, Middle East, Europe may open paths to proliferation.
Why It Matters for India
- India’s Strategic Doctrine: Must navigate a trilemma involving China–Pakistan nexus.
- Need for Deterrence + Stability: Expansion must be matched with command-and-control safety, no-first use integrity, and civilian oversight.
- Diplomatic Opportunity: India can leverage its credible minimum deterrence model to revive South–South nuclear disarmament discourse.
Way Forward / Recommendations
- Reinvigorate Global Arms Control: India should push for multilateral treaties involving China, US, and Russia.
- Enhance Verification and Transparency: Technological tools (e.g. satellite monitoring, blockchain) can be employed.
- Establish AI-nuclear safeguards: Global codes on autonomous weapons and algorithmic crisis control.
Promote ‘No First Use’ globally: Codify and propagate India’s long-standing doctrine.
UPSC Relevance
GS2: International Relations – Disarmament and Non-Proliferation
GS3: Internal Security – Strategic Capabilities, Emerging Tech & Border Security
Mains Practice Question
Q. “With the rise in global nuclear stockpiles and technological disruption in warfare, the world faces a new era of instability.” Critically examine in light of the SIPRI Yearbook 2025. Suggest a strategic roadmap for India.