Syllabus: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests, Indian diaspora.
Background of Early Negotiations (2022)
- Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, prompting direct talks in Belarus and later under Turkey’s mediation.
- The Istanbul meeting (March 29, 2022) produced an outline of a tentative settlement.
- Proposal included Russia withdrawing to pre-war positions, retaining Crimea and separatist-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk.
- Ukraine would abandon NATO membership and receive security guarantees from select countries.
- Russia briefly pulled back troops from Kyiv and Chernihiv, signalling diplomatic intent.
Collapse of the Istanbul Process
- Western reluctance to offer strong security guarantees weakened the talks.
- Boris Johnson reportedly advised Kyiv to continue fighting, discouraging concessions.
- Zelenskyy interpreted Russia’s withdrawal from Kyiv as weakness; military pushback followed.
- Russia escalated by annexing four more regions and ordering partial mobilisation.
Trump Administration’s 2025 Peace Plan
- A 28-point plan now pressures Ukraine amid battlefield setbacks and domestic scandals.
- Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk would be recognised as “de facto Russian”.
- Ukraine must withdraw troops from Donetsk and accept a frozen line of contact in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia.
- Russia keeps captured territories; Ukraine loses control over significant regions.
- Ukraine’s armed forces capped at 6,00,000 personnel.
- Kyiv must enshrine non-membership of NATO in its Constitution; NATO must bar Ukraine’s entry permanently.
- U.S. promises to reintegrate Russia into the global economy, including lifting sanctions and returning to G8.
- A separate three-point security draft proposes NATO-style guarantees for 10 years.
Changing Ground Realities
- Russia has regrouped and adopted a long-term war strategy after early setbacks.
- Despite major Western weapon supplies, Ukraine failed to halt slow Russian advances.
- Capture of Pokrovsk and gains in Kupiansk mark major strategic losses for Ukraine.
- Trump’s arrival in 2025 fractured trans-Atlantic unity, shifting war support burden onto Europe.
Zelenskyy’s Strategic Dilemma
- Zelenskyy remains in power under martial law amid corruption scandals and economic weakness.
- Power shortages intensify as Russian strikes target the grid.
- Zelenskyy once demanded full Russian withdrawal but now signals readiness for a ceasefire along current lines, ceding over 20% of pre-2014 territory.
- Accepting Trump’s plan risks domestic backlash and legitimising Russian gains; rejecting it risks prolonged war and loss of U.S. support.
Conclusion
- Early peace possibilities disappeared as military and geopolitical dynamics hardened.
- The new Trump plan reflects Ukraine’s weakened position and Russia’s strengthened leverage.
- Peace remains elusive due to territorial disputes, NATO concerns, shifting power balances, and competing strategic interests of great powers.