Syllabus: Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests
Context and Background
- U.S. President Donald Trump announced the resumption of nuclear weapons testing after a 33-year moratorium.
- It followed Russia’s test of a nuclear-capable cruise missile and Trump’s meeting with China’s President Xi Jinping, indicating strategic timing.
Global Implications and Power Dynamics
- The move may reshape U.S.–China and U.S.–Russia relations, sparking a potential arms race.
- China’s Foreign Ministry urged the U.S. to abide by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
- If the U.S. resumes testing, China and Russia could follow suit, testing low-yield tactical nuclear weapons.
- The New START Treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty), expiring in February 2026, may face renewal challenges.
Impact on the Global Non-Proliferation Regime
- The moratorium on testing, though informal, acted as a global restraint mechanism since the 1990s.
- Resumption undermines the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and its “grand bargain” of disarmament and restraint.
- Non-nuclear states may question their commitments and consider developing nuclear weapons for security.
Regional and Security Implications
- A renewed testing phase could trigger a technological arms race, particularly in Asia.
- If China resumes testing, India and Pakistan may follow, threatening South Asian stability.
- U.S. allies might doubt extended deterrence, leading to insecurity within defence alliances.
The Way Forward
- Experts call for global dialogue and trilateral arms control talks among the U.S., Russia, and China.
- A binding global no-first-use (NFU) policy could help revive trust in the disarmament framework.
- Reinforcing faith in NPT and CTBT remains crucial for global nuclear stability and peaceful coexistence.