U.S. Exit from UNFCCC and IPCC

Syllabus: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests

Background

  • U.S. President Donald Trump issued a presidential memorandum withdrawing from 66 international organisations.
  • These include the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
  • The move follows an executive order dated February 4, 2025, reviewing treaties against U.S. interests.

Impact of Exit from UNFCCC

  • The UNFCCC anchors almost all multilateral climate diplomacy and monitoring frameworks.
  • Exiting removes the U.S. from the emissions reporting and transparency system under the UNFCCC.
  • It also implies automatic withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, which operates under the UNFCCC.
  • The U.S. will no longer be a party to COP negotiations, losing formal negotiating rights.
  • It may still attend some meetings, but only as an observer without legal standing.

Implications for Climate Finance

  • The UNFCCC oversees finance through bodies like the Green Climate Fund and Global Environment Facility.
  • U.S. exit reduces its influence over climate finance governance and makes withholding funds politically easier.
  • It also increases policy uncertainty for U.S. companies, raising investment and trade risks.
  • Foreign partners may hesitate to enter energy, minerals, and development deals with Washington.

Role of the IPCC

  • The IPCC synthesises global scientific research on climate change impacts and policy options.
  • U.S. exit weakens its role in shaping shared scientific references for negotiations.
  • American experts may still contribute as reviewers or through non-government nominations.

Global Repercussions

  • Withdrawal by a high-emission, wealthy country weakens trust in reciprocal climate commitments.
  • It may encourage other reluctant governments to delay or dilute climate action.
  • Poorer countries could harden positions due to perceived unfair burden-sharing.

Finance Gap and Future Risks

  • Developed countries mobilised $115.9 billion in 2022, crossing the earlier $100 billion goal.
  • Adaptation needs are projected at $310–365 billion annually by 2035, but only $26 billion flowed in 2023.
  • COP29 (2024) set a new target of $300 billion per year by 2035.
  • U.S. exit undermines credibility and feasibility of meeting these global finance commitments.

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