Indus Waters Treaty Renegotiation
Indus Waters Treaty: Context and Background
- India put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance following the Pahalgam terror attack in 2025.
- India served Pakistan two formal notices under Article XII seeking treaty modification and renegotiation.
- Pakistan has not responded to either notice while organising an international conference threatening consequences.
- The stand-off between India and Pakistan on the treaty actually began in 2016 after the Uri terror attack.
Key Features of Indus Waters Treaty, 1960
- The IWT was signed between India and Pakistan on September 19, 1960, brokered by the World Bank; it divides six Indus rivers into Eastern and Western river systems.
Eastern Rivers
Ravi, Beas and Sutlej — allocated entirely to India for unrestricted use.
Western Rivers
Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — allocated to Pakistan with limited India usage rights.
Permanent Indus Commission (PIC)
Established as the implementing and monitoring body for treaty compliance.
Article VII
Allows both countries to undertake new engineering works through mutual agreement — never used.
Article XII
Provides for treaty modification through another government-level treaty — India has invoked this.
Why Renegotiation is Necessary: Key Arguments
Climate Change
- Eastern river basins have seen a 20% decline in annual rainfall over the last 70 years, per an IIT Gandhinagar study.
- Precipitation in western river basins has remained largely unchanged, creating differential water availability.
- No treaty negotiated before the 1990s could have factored in climate change impacts.
Missing Modern Elements
- The treaty has no mention of groundwater resources, which are transboundary in nature.
- It contains no provisions for water quality or maintaining minimum environmental flows.
Pakistan has complained that India dumps municipal and sewage waste in eastern rivers, affecting downstream areas.
Structural Design Flaw
- IWT allocated entire rivers to one party rather than sharing volumes, making it a partition agreement, not a sharing treaty.
- This clean river-partitioning discourages joint river basin management and cooperative water governance.
- The treaty leads to highly inefficient utilisation of Indus waters under changing conditions.
Security Linkage
- Pakistan’s continued support for cross-border terrorism has created an extraordinary security situation.
- Renegotiation itself is the most reliable way for Pakistan to ensure the treaty is no longer kept in abeyance.
Global Transboundary Water Treaties: Comparative Perspective
- There are at least 250 separate transboundary water treaties covering 113 transboundary river systems globally, giving rise to over 800 supplementary agreements reflecting constant review and adaptation.
- India’s 1996 Ganga Water Treaty with Bangladesh has a 30-year validity requiring periodic renewal — due this year.
Mekong River Commission (1995)
Has far more flexible institutional structures than the PIC, and can independently develop and revise joint basin management strategies and data-sharing protocols.
Permanent Indus Commission
By contrast, has largely focused only on ensuring treaty provisions are not violated, with limited scope for adaptive governance.
Challenges in Modifying Indus Waters Treaty
Article XII Limitation
Treaty can only be modified through another government-level treaty requiring bilateral agreement.
Pakistan’s Resistance
Pakistan has refused to respond to India’s formal notices despite repeated requests.
Political Sensitivity
Any modification is treated as existential by Pakistan, given public opinion and water security dependence.
Dispute Resolution Gaps
The existing arbitration and neutral expert mechanisms have themselves become contested.
No Emergency Provisions
The treaty has no provisions for climate emergencies, drought or conflict-related disruptions.
Way Forward: Towards a Modern Indus Water Framework
Invoke Article XII
Continue formal pressure on Pakistan to negotiate a new supplementary treaty addressing contemporary gaps.
Groundwater Inclusion
Any new framework must explicitly cover transboundary groundwater shared across the basin.
Environmental Flows
Introduce mandatory minimum environmental flow provisions for all rivers on both sides.
Joint Basin Management
Move from rigid river partitioning toward a Mekong-style joint river management commission.
Climate Adaptation
Incorporate climate risk assessments and adaptive allocation mechanisms based on real-time data sharing.
Water Quality Protocols
Establish binding water quality standards preventing upstream pollution affecting downstream users.
World Bank Facilitation
Engage the World Bank’s good offices role to facilitate renegotiation, as it did in 1960.
