• The US announced a deal on 10 October 2026 allowing Russia to sell diesel to the US and the global market, less than a month after it passed a law with tariffs of up to 100% on large buyers of Russian oil and gas.
• At the same time, with Gulf supplies recovering, India has been buying more crude from the Gulf and many other countries.

• Law: Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026, signed on 18 September, aims to cut Russia’s war funding through sanctions and tariffs on its major fuel buyers.
• The conflict: US leaders say the diesel deal undermines this law and may fund Russia’s war.
• Trade talks with India: Tariffs on India rose to 50% in August 2025 over Russian oil imports. An interim agreement framework was agreed in February 2026, but new US probes and the September law slowed talks.
• The new problem: The US is now doing what it has penalised India for.

• Gulf rebound: Gulf oil exports recovered to 80% to 100% of pre-war levels in September.
• Shift in imports: Saudi crude to India rose 50–60% over August, Iraqi crude nearly tripled, and Kuwait and Oman sent more.
• Many sources: India also buys large cargoes from Brazil, Angola, Nigeria, Venezuela and the US.

• The Russia Sanctions Act, 2026 (US law) allows tariffs of up to 100% on the largest importers of Russian oil and gas, which are China and India.
• India’s historical position has been to follow UN sanctions but not other countries’ unilateral sanctions.

For

• It can lower fuel prices for the US and the world.
• More diesel supply eases pressure on energy markets disrupted by the West Asia conflict.

Against

• It undermines the sanctions law and may fund Russia’s war.
• It is inconsistent, since India is penalised for the same imports.
• The energy ceasefire is unclear and may not hold.

• It shows that US policy can change quickly, which makes trade talks with the US unpredictable.
• It tests India’s strategic autonomy, as it balances Russia, the US and the Gulf.
• It shows that diversified sourcing protects India from supply shocks.
• A real energy ceasefire could allow Russia to repair its refineries and reduce its need to import fuel, mostly from India.

• The tariff waiver is temporary, so the threat of higher tariffs on India remains.
• Trade talks keep stalling because of new US actions.
• Shipping attacks raise freight and insurance costs and threaten supply.
• Buying from many far-off sources can be costlier than buying from nearby suppliers.
• India depends on imports for most of its crude and has little control over prices.