Countries are increasingly dealing with Myanmar’s military-led government, months after an election that made the junta chief the civilian President.

An analysis argues that this engagement is short-sighted, because trade cannot thrive in a country at war.

• China: Wants an outlet to the Indian Ocean and security for its oil and gas pipelines. It allowed three ethnic armed groups to launch an offensive in Shan and Rakhine in late 2023, and has since pressured two of them into ceasefires and returning seized territory. It backed the election, while also dealing with rebel groups in Kachin (rare earths and jade) and the United Wa State Army (a large tin mine).
• India: Wants to revive its stalled Act East Policy and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project.
• United States: Eyes access to heavy rare earths, such as dysprosium and terbium, used in electric vehicles and weapons.
• ASEAN: Still backs its Five-Point Consensus, which calls for an end to violence and dialogue, yet members are eager to do business with a regime that has ignored every point.

• Trade needs peace: Trade thrives in a country at peace, not one where armed groups fight perennially for control.
• The junta cannot deliver peace: It has killed its citizens & blocked every move towards democracy.
• Impunity: Unless the generals answer for war crimes, Myanmar will remain a war zone, which hurts its people and also the businesses that want to trade with it.

• Border security: India shares a 1,643 km border with Myanmar, and instability affects the North East, including refugee flows and insurgent sanctuaries.
• Connectivity: Kaladan links Kolkata with Mizoram through Sittwe port, a gateway for the North East, but Rakhine is largely held by the Arakan Army.
• China factor: Stepping back could hand more influence to China.

• Legitimacy: Engagement risks legitimising an election that was widely seen as a sham.
• Dealing with all sides: India needs ties with the junta, the ethnic armed groups and the opposition to protect its projects.
• Divided ASEAN: The bloc’s consensus has not been followed.
• Sanctions politics: Western countries are split between easing and tightening sanctions.

• Coup: The military took power in Myanmar on 1 February 2021.
• FATF: The global money-laundering and terror-financing watchdog. Its blacklist (“call for action”) has only Iran, North Korea and Myanmar.
• Kaladan project: A multi-modal route linking Kolkata port with Sittwe (sea), the Kaladan river to Paletwa, and a road to Mizoram.