GLOBAL RISK REPORT 2024

Why in the News?
The World Economic Forum (WEF) released its annual Global Risks Report 2024, based on insights from the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS). The report highlights escalating geopolitical tensions, climate emergencies, and technological disruptions as defining challenges of the decade.

Key Findings

India’s Top 5 Risks (Short-Term: 2 Years)

1. Misinformation & Disinformation (MI):
   • AI-driven deepfakes, social media manipulation, and election interference threaten social cohesion and democratic processes (e.g., 2024 general elections).
2. Infectious Diseases:
   • Post-COVID vulnerabilities persist due to weak healthcare infrastructure and antimicrobial resistance.
3. Illicit Economic Activity:
   • Cybercrime, smuggling, and money laundering fueled by digitalization and geopolitical instability.
4. Inequality (Wealth & Income):
   • Top 10% of Indians hold 77% of national wealth (Oxfam 2024), exacerbating social unrest.
5. Labour Shortage:
   • Skill gaps, migration shifts, and demographic imbalances disrupt industries like manufacturing and IT.

Global Short-Term Risks (Next 2 Years)

• Misinformation/Disinformation: AI tools enable hyper-realistic fake content, destabilizing democracies.
• Extreme Weather Events (EWS): Heatwaves, floods, and wildfires disrupt food/water security.
• Societal Polarization: Divisive politics and inequality fuel protests and violence.
• Cyber Insecurity: Ransomware attacks target critical infrastructure (healthcare, energy grids).

Global Long-Term Risks (10 Years)

1. Extreme Weather Events: Climate change intensifies disasters, risking $23 trillion in global GDP losses by 2050.
2. Critical Change to Earth Systems: Tipping points (e.g., Amazon dieback, permafrost melt) could irreversibly alter ecosystems.
3. Biodiversity Loss: 1 million species face extinction, collapsing food chains and livelihoods.
4. Natural Resource Crises: Water scarcity and soil degradation threaten 40% of the global population.

Implications

1. Geopolitical Fragmentation:
   • US-China rivalry and regional conflicts (e.g., Ukraine, Gaza) disrupt supply chains and climate cooperation.
2. Technology Governance Gap:
   • Rapid AI advancement outpaces regulations, raising ethical and security concerns.
3. Climate Adaptation Failure:
   • Developing nations lack funds to combat rising seas and droughts, risking mass migration.

Interconnected Risks

• Example: Climate-driven migration ➔ strains host economies ➔ fuels far-right populism ➔ increases polarization.
• AI & Misinformation: Deepfakes could spark conflicts or market crashes during crises.

Challenges in Mitigation

• Short-Termism: Governments prioritize immediate crises over long-term risks like biodiversity loss.
• Lack of Global Cooperation: Competing national interests hinder climate and cyber treaties.
• Resource Inequality: Low-income countries receive <10% of climate finance needed for adaptation.

Way Forward

1. Strengthen Multilateralism: Revive frameworks like the Paris Agreement and UN Cybercrime Convention.
2. Invest in Resilience: Scale up climate adaptation funds and public health infrastructure.
3. Regulate Technology: Enforce AI transparency laws and global cyber norms.
4. Address Inequality: Progressive taxation and universal basic services to reduce social divides.

Conclusion:
The 2024 Global Risks Report serves as a wake-up call for governments and businesses to adopt systems-thinking approaches. With global risks becoming more complex and intertwined, proactive collaboration is vital to avert cascading crises. As WEF notes, “The clock is ticking, and the cost of inaction is catastrophic.”