Climate Change & Extreme Weather Attribution: UPSC Mains Notes
In News: Climate Change Behind Europe’s Heatwave
- A study by World Weather Attribution (WWA) examined causes of extreme weather. WWA found climate change to be “unequivocally to blame” for Europe’s heatwave.
- Europe witnessed its unprecedented and record-breaking temperatures in recent days. This is the third time in five years Europe has found itself in heatwave grip.
About: Attribution Science & Extreme Weather Events
- Attribution science seeks to remove ambiguity and determine the exact extent of responsibility.
- It seeks to determine the likelihood of a particular extreme weather event occurring without climate change.
- This is a relatively new discipline, developed just over the last two decades.
- It tries to quantify the likelihood of a particular extreme weather event happening.
- In the last few years, the footprints of climate change in causing extreme weather have grown clearer.
- Accurate attribution helps remove ambiguity and determine the exact climate-change responsibility.
Drivers: El NiƱo, ENSO & Global Warming
- ENSO Phenomenon: ENSO is an ocean-atmospheric interaction over the Pacific Ocean affecting global weather patterns.
- El NiƱo Warming: El NiƱo is one of two ENSO phases known to have a warming effect.
- La NiƱa Cooling: The opposite phase, La NiƱa, tends to bring cooler temperatures globally.
- 2025 Precedent: A similar situation had prevailed in May this year with an early heatwave forecast.
- 2016 Comparison: Many temperature records were broken in 2016 when the region experienced an unusually hot summer.
- Mortality Impact: More than 1,300 excess deaths since 2022 have been linked to rising temperatures.
Way Forward: Mitigation, Adaptation & Policy Action
- Declining Priority: Climate change science has dropped a few notches down global political priorities recently.
- US Withdrawal: This decline is particularly visible under US President Trump’s exit from the Paris Agreement.
- Lost Momentum: Climate change used to be one of the most important global agenda items earlier.
- Temperature Target: Policymakers must act rapidly to keep temperatures within 1.5Ā°C to 2Ā°C of pre-industrial levels.
- Government Inaction: Governments appear to have all but given up on those critical temperature targets.
- Adaptation Window: Scientists insist there is still time for rapid adaptation to climate change effects.
- Limits of Adaptation: Adaptation has its limits, and global mitigation action continues to woefully lag behind.
- Rising Frequency: Heatwave events like Europe’s are expected to increase in both frequency and intensity ahead.
Source: Indian Express
