The West Asia and Black Sea conflicts and a possible very strong El Niño are exposing Indian agriculture’s dependence on oil and gas-based inputs. High oil prices are also pulling food crops towards fuel.

• Fossilisation: Farming now runs on tractors, fertilisers and agro-chemicals made from fossil fuels, in place of bullocks and farmyard manure.
• Price shock: In a year, LNG (the feedstock for urea) rose from about $11 to $30 per million BTU and naphtha from about $515–520 to $910–915 per tonne. Sulphur is now at $1,000–1,100 per tonne.
• Fuelisation: With Brent crude above $100 a barrel, crops are being pulled towards biofuel.
• Twin shock risk: In 1979–80, an oil shock and a weather shock together cut farm output by 12.8% and doubled the oil import bill.

• Machines: India had about 8,500 tractors in 1950–51. It now has over 1.2 crore, and 11.6 lakh were sold in 2025–26. Combines and electric or diesel pumps have replaced hand harvesting and the rahat.
• Fertilisers: Consumption rose from 69,800 tonnes of NPK in 1950–51 to 33.5 million tonnes in 2025–26. Urea and DAP make up about 67.5% of it.
• Hidden fossil links: Urea needs natural gas. Sulphur, a by-product of oil refining and gas processing, is needed for DAP and SSP. Crop-protection chemicals are made from naphtha derivatives such as benzene, toluene and xylene.
• Import dependence: India imports oil, gas, ammonia, rock phosphate, sulphur, muriate of potash and technical-grade pesticide ingredients.

Rising oil prices make crops more valuable as fuel than as food.

• Ethanol: Ethanol from sugarcane, rice, maize and other grains is blended up to 20% in petrol.
• Biodiesel: Vegetable oils can be converted into FAME and blended with diesel.
• Policy response: The government has already banned sugarcane juice and B-heavy molasses for ethanol. If El Niño bites, grains may be next.

The twin shock is less likely to cause a sharp fall than in 1979–80, but the lessons remain.

• More diversified: A growing share of farm income now comes from dairy, poultry, aquaculture and horticulture.
• Better irrigation: About 56% of the gross cropped area is irrigated, against 29% in 1979–80 and 17.1% in 1950–51.
• Still import-dependent: India imports oil, gas and key fertiliser inputs, so global price spikes reach farmers.
• Takeaway: Resilience has improved, but input and energy dependence remains the weak spot.

• Low nutrient efficiency: Crops absorb only about one-third of the nitrogen in urea. About three-fourths of the phosphorus in DAP gets locked up in the soil.
• Imported inputs: Fertiliser and pesticide inputs are imported, so supply and prices depend on global events.
• Price volatility: Swings in LNG, naphtha and sulphur prices raise input costs quickly.
• Food versus fuel: Diverting grains and oils for fuel can hurt food supply and prices.
• Climate risk: El Niño years usually bring deficient rain over most of India, which adds to input cost pressure.