Bangladesh’s newly elected Prime Minister is expected to visit New Delhi in November or December. This has revived the debate on the roots of mistrust in India–Bangladesh relations.

• Geography: Bangladesh is surrounded by India on three sides, with a border of over 4,000 km. Its main rivers flow through or originate in India.
• Early goodwill: Goodwill was high after 1971, but later governments in Dhaka deliberately distanced the country from India.
• Party divide: The Awami League has generally favoured close ties with India, while the BNP and its allies are more suspicious.

The unease comes from history, identity and geography together.

• Gratitude and resentment: India dealt the decisive blow in 1971, although the Mukti Bahini also fought. Gratitude later turned into discomfort.
• Fear of domination: Dhaka feared India’s policy would pass through West Bengal, which shares cultural and linguistic ties with Bangladesh.
• Identity politics: Under Ziaur Rahman, nationalism was redefined in Islamic terms, and attitudes to India became part of the debate on national identity.
• Balancing India: Dhaka sought closer ties with Pakistan, China and the United States, which was often an assertion of strategic autonomy.
• Hasina-centric policy: India tied its interests to one leader and party, and was seen as putting security above democratic evolution.
• Takeaway: Past policy mixed history with personal ties, and the cost is now visible.

• Connectivity: Bangladesh is indispensable to India’s regional connectivity, and India is indispensable to Bangladesh’s.
• Security: The security and stability of the two countries are closely linked.
• Rivers: Shared river systems make water sharing a permanent part of the agenda.
• Regional balance: A hostile or distant Dhaka opens space for outside powers in India’s neighbourhood.

• Extradition issue: India’s refusal to hand over the former leader keeps a political wound open in Dhaka.
• River water sharing: Disputes on shared rivers can turn goodwill into suspicion.
• Perception of dominance: India’s size and its repeated references to 1971 can feed resentment.
• Domestic politics in Dhaka: Party positions on India are tied to questions of national identity, so policy can swing with each government.
• Outside influence: Closer ties between Dhaka and Beijing, Islamabad or Washington can complicate India’s position.