India’s Nuclear Doctrine & SIPRI Report: UPSC Mains Notes
In News: SIPRI Flags 12 ‘Operationally Deployed’ Indian Warheads
- SIPRI’s 2026 Yearbook classified 12 of India’s warheads as operationally deployed.
- India has an estimated stockpile of 190 nuclear warheads total currently.
Doctrine: No First Use (NFU) & Credible Minimum Deterrence
- NFU Commitment: India’s representative reaffirmed NFU at the UN High-Level Meeting in September 2025.
- No Pre-emptive Strike: Under NFU, India commits to not launching a pre-emptive nuclear strike.
- Survivability Requirement: NFU requires absolute certainty that arsenal survives a first strike for retaliation.
- Doctrine Foundation: Without survivability, NFU is not a doctrine but a liability.
- No Policy Shift: SIPRI report does not indicate any shift towards first use or lowered threshold.
Concept: Stockpile vs Deployment & Second-Strike Capability
- De-mated Storage: India traditionally kept warheads de-mated and stored separately from delivery vehicles.
- Civilian Oversight: This was maintained under strict civilian and political oversight to maximise safety.
- Deployment Meaning: Deployment means a weapon is paired with a delivery system and ready.
- Readiness Configuration: Deployment means weapons are configured for use if authorised only.
- Mated vs De-mated: A mated weapon can be launched more quickly than a de-mated one.
Triad: Arihant-Class SSBNs & Canisterised Agni Missiles
- Submarine Deterrent: SIPRI linked deployment to maturation of India’s sea-based deterrent.
- Arihant-Class: India’s Arihant-class submarines have strengthened the survivability of second-strike capability.
- Three SSBNs: India now has three operational SSBNs sufficient for continuous patrol.
- Canisterised Missiles: SIPRI noted India’s growing reliance on canisterised Agni-series missiles.
- Sealed Readiness: Canisterisation means missiles are kept ready with fuel in sealed cylinders.
- Submarine Advantage: A stealth submarine cannot be found, tracked or destroyed in time.
- Survivability Solution: Sea-basing is the most robust solution for assured retaliation postures.
Global Trend: Nuclear Modernisation & Weakening Arms Control
- Rising Reliance: States are increasingly relying on nuclear weapons as instruments of national power.
- Global Stockpile: Nine nuclear-armed states collectively possess 12,187 nuclear warheads as of January 2026.
- China’s Arsenal: China’s arsenal has grown to approximately 620 warheads and continues expanding.
- China Focus: India’s modernisation focuses on long-range systems reaching targets throughout China.
- Pakistan Comparison: China’s arsenal is now more than three times Pakistan’s estimated stockpile.
- Weakening Arms Control: Arms-control agreements have weakened or collapsed globally in recent years.
- Tech Competition: Competition intensifies in hypersonic systems, AI decision support and missile defence.
- Miscalculation Risk: The risk of miscalculation is correspondingly increasing amid this strategic competition.
Source: The Hindu
