UPSC Mains
GS Paper II
International Relations
The Other G2: US–Russia Thaw, EU Sanctions and India
The US eased sanctions on Russian diesel until April 2027, which has revived talk of a possible US–Russia understanding, or a second “G2”
US DIESEL SANCTIONS EASED
Until April 2027
EU SANCTIONS LIST ADDITION
Almost 1,600 entities
THE “OTHER G2”
US–Russia accommodation
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Why in News
- The US eased sanctions on Russian diesel until April 2027, which has revived talk of a possible US–Russia understanding, or a second “G2”.
- Days later, the European Union added almost 1,600 individuals and entities to its Russia sanctions list, the largest expansion since the war began.
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Source: The Hindu & Indian Express
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About the “Other G2”
- The usual G2 refers to a US–China partnership that could dominate Asia.
- The “other G2” is a possible strategic accommodation between the US and Russia.
- It would reduce the confrontation that has defined their relations since the war in Ukraine began.
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Source: The Hindu & Indian Express
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Significance for India
- A thaw could ease American pressure on India’s Russian energy purchases and defence ties, and the diesel waiver weakens the case for penalising India alone.
- It shows that US–Russia relations are not fixed, so India must prepare for both cooperation and confrontation between them.
- Russia values engagement with the US as a great-power peer. In the early 1990s, its eagerness to improve ties with the West pushed India lower in its priorities.
- India’s trade, technology, investment and defence stakes in Europe have grown, so European stability directly affects India.
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Source: The Hindu & Indian Express
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Challenges
US Domestic Politics
US domestic politics is a hurdle. The US Congress is broadly opposed to concessions to Russia and can slow any deal through investigations, sanctions laws and control over spending.
Ukraine’s Resistance
Ukraine will resist any settlement that rewards the invasion or leaves its security weak.
European Exposure
European countries fear a US–Russia deal could leave them exposed, and Russia’s dispute with Europe may continue even after a deal.
EU Divisions
The EU is divided over how far to go. It finds it hard to agree on measures that do not harm its own economies.
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Source: The Hindu & Indian Express
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Way Forward
Strategic Autonomy
India should preserve its strategic autonomy and plan for both outcomes: a US–Russia thaw and a return to sanctions pressure.
Engage Russia and Europe
It should keep Russia engaged on energy and defence while deepening ties with Europe.
Support Peace
It should support peace in Ukraine and encourage direct dialogue between Russia and Europe.
Diversify Sources
It should diversify its energy and defence sources, so that no single policy change can hurt it.
Conclusion: A US–Russia thaw may ease pressure on India, but it is uncertain and will not settle Russia’s dispute with Europe. India should prepare for both outcomes and keep good ties with all sides.
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Source: The Hindu & Indian Express
