Why in News: After Operation Sindoor (May 2025), India and Pakistan have intensified maritime signalling through naval deployments, exercises, missile tests, and capability inductions, indicating a shift of the deterrence equation from the air domain to the maritime theatre.
Introduction
- Operation Sindoor (2025) initially played out in the air domain, but subsequent events have shifted attention to the maritime theatre.
- Both navies are recalibrating posture, signalling readiness, and testing deterrence thresholds in the Arabian Sea.
India’s Maritime Signalling
- Forward posture: Operation Sindoor designed for naval deterrence.
- Induction: INS Nistar (indigenous diving support vessel).
- Indo-Pacific role: First joint patrol with the Philippines in the South China Sea.
- Narrative: Defence Minister’s warning (Oct 2025) – strong response in Sir Creek if provoked.
Pakistan’s Maritime Signalling
- Force dispersal: Karachi fleet shifted partly to Gwadar (reduce vulnerability).
- Capability growth:
- Hangor-class submarine (PNS Mangro) from China.
- P282 ship-launched ballistic missile.
- Babur-class corvettes from Türkiye with advanced radar & EW suites.
- Operational friction: Overlapping NOTAMs, missile tests, live-fire drills close to Indian activity.
Strategic Weight of Naval Signalling
- Escalation Control: Naval engagements risk quick escalation beyond limited skirmishes.
- Capability Balance: India still holds geographical/numerical edge but faces aging fleet; Pakistan steadily narrowing the gap.
External Dimension:
- PLAN presence at Gwadar/Karachi.
- Türkiye’s supply/training role.
Doctrinal Shifts:
- India moving toward early maritime signalling.
- Pakistan adopting deterrence-by-denial through A2/AD.
Risks & Challenges
- Strategic drift: Reliance on precedents from past crises despite new tech (hypersonics, drones).
- Miscalculation danger due to continuous deployments & drills.
- Shrinking space for coercion short of war.
Conclusion
Maritime signalling post-Sindoor shows the next Indo-Pak crisis may unfold at sea, not just in air or land domains.India must modernise its fleet, deepen Indo-Pacific partnerships, and balance coercion with escalation control.
UPSC Relevance
GS Paper II:
- India and its neighbourhood relations.
Mains Practice Question (15 Marks, 250 words)
Q. The maritime signalling after Operation Sindoor reflects a shift in deterrence dynamics between India and Pakistan. Analyse the implications for India’s maritime security and broader Indo-Pacific strategy.