Central Argument
- India’s foreign policy mandarins struggle to adapt to emerging global realities.
- Steeped in 1930s-1950s traditions, unable to comprehend current dynamics.
- Adapting foreign policy to new global realities is urgent necessity.
Impact of Trump’s Presidency
- Multilateralism/plurilateralism lost meaning with Trump’s advent in U.S.
- India lacks necessary flexibility to navigate a seemingly friendless world.
- India’s trust deficit growing; consequences can be serious.
India’s Declining Geopolitical Relevance
- India losing geopolitical relevance despite foreign policy establishment’s efforts.
- Trump’s shifting goal posts demand extreme nimbleness; India’s diplomats out of step, increasingly isolated.
- Despite being top five economic power, India seen as ‘outlier’ in global events.
- Case Study 1: Gaza Peace Settlement
- World celebrates Gaza peace settlement orchestrated by Trump, U.S., Türkiye, Egypt, Qatar.
- India’s absence/exclusion reflects growing irrelevance in West Asia politics.
- India sent lowest-level representation to grand reconciliation celebrating Gaza conflict end.
- Case Study 2: Gen Z Revolution in Nepal
- India was conspicuous absentee during Gen Z revolution in Nepal.
- Demonstrates India’s foreign policy lacks depth and content even for vital interests.
- Revolution on India’s doorstep; India found itself helpless, mere bystander.
- Similar youthful dissent seen in Bangladesh and Indonesia previously.
Strategic Displacement
- India displaced from driving seat and the space filled by countries hostile to India.
- Türkiye sided with Pakistan during recent India-Pakistan conflict.
- Saudi Arabia-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement: Treat aggression against one as against both.
- Confirms India’s position as outlier in region where Indic influence previously reigned.
- India’s foreign policy lacks ingenuity and flexibility to deal with regional problems.
Situation in the Neighbourhood
- Afghanistan-Pakistan
- Afghan Taliban attacks on Pakistani cities; India viewing as retributive justice is shortsighted.
- India’s efforts should create conducive atmosphere where wars remain last resort.
- Persuade Bangladesh and Nepal (perceived as hostile) to retrace steps, maintain better relations.
- China’s Regional Expansion
- China steadily expanding influence across region east of India.
- Adopts devious ways: Proliferation of small businesses, growing presence in universities, research centers, cyberspace.
- Aims to establish dominance, eclipse India’s influence across region.
- As U.S. influence wanes across world, new China-led order emerging in East and Southeast Asia.