Demographic Change in India
Emerging Demographic Transition
- Fertility rates across India have been falling for decades and are now at or below replacement levels.
- India will soon need to shift from managing a youth bulge to caring for an ageing population.
- This genuine demographic challenge requires evidence-based policy focused on health, employment and social security.
The Demographic Change Narrative
- PM Modi announced the need for a Demographic Change Committee from the Red Fort on August 15, 2025.
- The narrative has built around fears that undocumented Muslim migrants from Bangladesh are affecting population composition and electoral outcomes.
- This narrative proved electorally effective in Assam and West Bengal during recent election cycles.
- The committee’s Terms of Reference focus heavily on “illegal immigration”, border management and religious community-wise population analysis.
Data and Actual Trends
- On Bangladesh Migration:
- Bangladesh’s per capita income grew at 10.4% CAGR during 2005-23 compared to India’s 7.7%, thus making large-scale economic migration implausible.
- Both countries now have roughly the same per capita income and Human Development Index levels according to World Bank and UNDP data.
- On Muslim Fertility:
- Muslim share in India’s population rose from 10% in 1951 to 14% in 2011 due to historically lower education and higher poverty and not religious reasons.
- However, Muslim fertility has been falling rapidly and the gap with Hindu fertility is narrowing significantly.
- Muslim women in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Jammu and Kashmir have lower fertility than Hindu women in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh thus proving that poverty and education matter more than religion.
Committee on Demographic Change:
- The high-level committee is chaired by a retired Supreme Court judge and includes retired IAS and IPS officers, the Census Commissioner and an economist.
- Notably, not a single demographer is part of the committee despite it addressing demographic challenges.
- One Terms of Reference specifically asks to analyse structural population changes where religious communities deviate from broader trends, thus, raising concerns about targeted scrutiny.
- Critique of the Committee’s Approach
- Highlighting population increases in border districts without accounting for domestic migration or differential fertility is not evidence of illegal immigration.
- Official studies showing evidence of demographic change in border districts were reportedly removed without explanation suggesting they did not withstand scrutiny.
- Framing genuine demographic challenges through the lens of religion and immigration is a distortion of factual demographic science.
Way Forward
- Demographic policy must focus on reducing poverty, improving women’s education and strengthening healthcare, the real drivers of fertility change.
- Any committee examining demographic change must include qualified demographers and social scientists for credible evidence-based recommendations.
- Population policy must remain religion-neutral and evidence-based rather than driven by electoral or ideological considerations.
India’s ageing demographic transition demands investment in social security, elder care and healthcare infrastructure and not divisive immigration narratives.
