Context
- China’s expanding counter-space capabilities are blurring the line between routine space operations and warfare.
- Beijing’s development of anti-satellite missiles and co-orbital systems poses a direct threat to global space security.
- While no conflict has been fought in space yet, controlling outer space remains a potential trigger for future confrontation.
China’s Space Ambitions and Capabilities
- China has around 1,900 satellites in orbit and plans to deploy more than 36,000 LEO satellites by 2030 challenging Starlink’s dominance.
- It aims to land on the moon by 2036, launch a nuclear-powered shuttle by 2040 and establish a solar power system by 2050.
- China has demonstrated a full spectrum of counter-space capabilities including direct-ascent ASAT missiles, laser-based blinding systems and co-orbital interference satellites.
- Kinetic systems like DN-3 and SC-19 missiles can physically destroy satellites while the SJ and TJS co-orbital series can dislodge satellites from orbit.
- Together these capabilities could enable the PLA to cripple ISR, GPS and communication networks within the first 24 to 48 hours of a conflict.
Implications for India
- India has only around 60 operational satellites against 400-plus Chinese military satellites implying critically lesser redundancy.
- Losing five to six satellites will hurt India more than equivalent losses would hurt China or the United States.
- China could strike the CARTOSAT and RISAT series causing loss of tactical imagery for hours or days.
- China could also lase satellites over the Line of Actual Control or deploy jammers to disable India’s NavIC system during a border crisis.
- Mission Shakti has strengthened deterrence but its utility remains restricted to a single test without proven operational reliability.
- India still lacks co-orbital capabilities to counter China’s SJ and TJS series satellites effectively.
Way Forward
- India must expand its space industry beyond ISRO to increase satellite production and launch capacity.
- Large satellite programmes like GSAT must be disaggregated into smaller constellations for greater resilience and survivability.
- India must strengthen protection of ground space assets to mitigate the impact of hard-kill attacks.
- Data-sharing arrangements with strategic partners must be enhanced to restore critical services within hours of satellite losses.
- India must clearly define its red lines and scope of proportionate response so China fully understands the escalation ladder.
