Missile Defence Systems

Context

• Fresh hostilities between the US-led coalition (Israel and UAE) and Iran have triggered a newly integrated regional air defence network.
• The 12-day war in June 2025 involved over 500 Iranian ballistic missiles and 1,000+ suicide drones — the most significant test of integrated air defence until then.
• The current conflict includes the Persian Gulf theatre, marking the debut of new defence systems and exposing critical gaps in missile production capacity.

What is Missile Defence?

• Missile defence finds and destroys incoming missiles before they reach targets using satellites and ground-based radar.
• Beyond saving lives, it discourages adversaries from initiating conflict and gives political leaders more time to deliberate.
• Two interception methods: proximity fuse (shrapnel-based, older) and hit-to-kill (kinetic collision, newer and more precise).

Effectiveness of Key Systems

System	Country	Effectiveness
Iron Dome	Israel	80–97% against slow short-range rockets
Patriot PAC-3	USA	Dropped to ~10% after Russia added decoys
GMD (homeland defence)	USA	Only 55% in scripted tests — 3 misses in last 6 tries

Strategic Innovations Worth Noting

• Iron Beam (Israel): A high-energy laser system that neutralises drone swarms cost-effectively, allowing Israel to ration expensive interceptors.
• Cheongung II (South Korea, deployed by UAE):  360° radar coverage without physical rotation, addressing a critical gap in older Patriot systems.
• Directed-energy weapons represent the future of cost-effective missile defence. The US has accelerated their deployment to naval vessels.
• Layered defence architecture: By combining Arrow 3, THAAD, David’s Sling, Patriot, and Iron Dome is now the established model for comprehensive air defence.

Core Strategic Challenge

• Iran’s saturation attack strategy i.e. firing large volumes of cheap missiles to exhaust expensive alliance interceptors, is the defining tactical challenge.
• Each Patriot PAC-3 MSE interceptor costs $4 million per shot, making sustained defence economically unsustainable.
• Production of all interceptors is far slower than combat consumption rates — a critical vulnerability for any nation.
• Replenishing THAAD shortages alone will take at least 1.5 years — US manufacturing has not scaled for high-tempo conflict in decades.
• This asymmetry of cheap offensive missiles versus expensive defensive interceptors — is the central lesson for defence planners globally.

Broader Strategic Implications

• No missile defence system is infallible as saturation attacks, decoys, and evasive manoeuvres can degrade even the most advanced systems.
• The conflict demonstrates that arms production capacity is as important as battlefield technology in sustained high-intensity conflict.
• For India, this reinforces the importance of Aatmanirbhar Bharat in defence, multi-layered missile defence, including S-400, and reducing dependence on single-source suppliers.
• The integration of South Korean, American, and Israeli systems in one theatre signals the growing importance of interoperable multilateral defence frameworks.