Syllabus: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests
Context
- ACLED report (2025) highlights unprecedented global exposure to armed conflict.
- Indicates rising intensity, spread, and civilian targeting, including increased state-led violence.
Scale of Global Conflict
- 831 million people exposed to conflict worldwide in 2025.
- Represents 10% of global population, or roughly one in six people globally.
- Reflects sharp escalation compared to previous years.
Rising Violence and State Involvement
- ACLED recorded nearly 2 lakh violent events globally in 2025.
- Violent events have nearly doubled compared to four years ago.
- State forces involved in 74% of violent events worldwide.
- Conflicts increasingly marked by reduced restraint and disregard for civilian harm.
Regional Conflict Trends
- Europe witnessed the highest increase in violence, driven by Russia–Ukraine war.
- Russia–Ukraine conflict affected maximum population since 2022 invasion.
- West Asia saw reduced violence due to:
- End of Syria’s civil war.
- Ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza.
- Violent events in West Asia declined by 48% compared to 2024.
- Global aerial warfare dropped 17%, due to reduced Israeli and Turkish air campaigns.
Violence Against Civilians
- 56,000+ incidents of violence targeting civilians in 2025.
- Highest civilian-targeted violence recorded in last five years.
- State-led violence against civilians rose from 20% (2020) to 35% (2025).
- Israel and Russia caused ~90% of cross-border civilian-targeted incidents.
- Myanmar military responsible for nearly one-third of state violence against own civilians.
Role of Non-State Armed Groups
- 60% of civilian fatalities caused by non-state actors and mobs.
- Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) killed 4,200+ civilians till November 2025.
- RSF deaths account for 11% of all non-state civilian fatalities.
- Allied Democratic Forces caused 1,370 civilian deaths.
- M23 group responsible for 1,100+ civilian fatalities.
Changing Nature of Warfare
- Commercial drones increasingly weaponised in modern conflicts.
- 469 non-state armed groups used drones in past five years.
- Represents a 14% increase from previous year.
- Indicates growing access to low-cost, high-impact military technology.
