Syllabus: Science and Technology – developments and their applications and effects in everyday life
Context and Overview
- The rapid expansion of electric vehicles is intensifying global dependence on copper as a critical resource.
- Copper underpins batteries, motors, wiring, charging networks, and power grid integration for EV systems.
- EV adoption has shifted from niche markets to the fastest-growing global automotive segment.
Demand Trends and Resource Linkages
- Global EV sales rose from 0.55 million units in 2015 to nearly 20 million in 2025.
- Associated copper consumption increased from 27,500 tonnes to over 1.28 million tonnes.
- EVs require four to five times more copper than internal combustion vehicles.
- Copper demand elasticity exceeded 1.0 between 2016 and 2024, outpacing EV adoption rates.
Elasticity and Infrastructure Drivers
- EV-related copper demand expanded from 39,000 tonnes in 2016 to over 1.1 million in 2024.
- Elasticity peaked at 1.76 in 2019, reflecting larger batteries and charging infrastructure expansion.
- Efficiency gains may lower elasticity to 0.90 by 2025, but absolute demand continues rising.
- The absence of viable large-scale substitutes sustains long-term structural pressure on copper markets.
Global Supply Constraints
- Copper supply growth is constrained by declining ore grades and underinvestment in new mining projects.
- New mines require 10 to 15 years for development and regulatory approvals.
- Global supply may exceed demand by 0.3 million tonnes in 2024, temporarily easing markets.
- By 2026, demand could reach 30 million tonnes, while supply lags at 28 million tonnes.
Projected Deficits and Economic Implications
- The supply gap may widen to 4.5 million tonnes by 2028.
- By 2030, deficits could reach eight million tonnes, matching output of the ten largest mines.
- Rising copper prices may increase EV costs and delay charging infrastructure expansion.
- Decarbonisation targets risk disruption due to material bottlenecks rather than technological limitations.
Shifting Global Market Dynamics
- China accounts for nearly 60 percent of global EV-related copper demand by 2025.
- Chinese demand surged from 78,000 tonnes in 2020 to 6,78,000 tonnes in 2024.
- China controls over 70 percent of global battery cell production.
- The European Union’s demand is projected at 210,000 tonnes, while the United States reaches 1,14,000 tonnes.
- India’s EV-related copper consumption remains modest at approximately 7,200 tonnes.
Conclusion
- The EV transition highlights copper as a strategic bottleneck shaping global electrification and geopolitical leverage.
